Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profileg
Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski

Epidemiologist/mathematician. Co-director of @LSHTM_CEPR and @TEDFellow. Author of The Rules of Contagion. Views own.

ID:453124512

linkhttps://kucharski.substack.com calendar_today02-01-2012 16:16:09

14,3K Tweets

144,1K Followers

2,0K Following

Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

'People often say their goal is to identify “risk factors”. But what does that mean? Some people use the term to indicate potential causes of outcomes. Then just say cause. Others use it to identify predictors of outcomes. Then just say predict.'

statsepi.substack.com/p/sorry-what-w…

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Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Comments that ‘this isn’t perfect’ miss the point I think. Potential for a lot of damage if bad actors can automate nuisance at scale - just look at history of computer worms, phishing scams etc…

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David Thomas(@dmthomas90) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I enjoyed reading this and expected some lessons for govt from the venture capital style approach the vaccine taskforce took. But the biggest lesson is one that I didn’t expect.

(Short 🧵)

I enjoyed reading this and expected some lessons for govt from the venture capital style approach the vaccine taskforce took. But the biggest lesson is one that I didn’t expect. (Short 🧵)
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Rupert Beale(@bealelab) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Would you like to work out how cells detect disturbed pH? It's important for viral and bacterial infection, so we think it's very interesting. Postdoctoral position available in my lab. crick.ac.uk/careers-study/…

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Michael Mina(@michaelmina_lab) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This paper from Kaiser on new XBB1.5 vax formulation is misleading

NO, it does NOT say that prior vaccination w non updated XBB1.5 vaccines offer no protection

No, it doesn’t even say the XBB1.5 updates to the vaccine formulation are important

🧵
1/
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One thing I’ve noticed about media coverage of pandemic excess mortality estimates is they’re often treated as ‘data’, rather than counterfactuals with several important assumptions…

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Megan Stevenson(@MeganTStevenson) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So pleased to see my paper out in the BU Law Review!

This paper surveys 50+ years of randomized control trials in criminal justice and shows that almost no interventions have lasting benefit -- and the ones that do don't replicate in other settings. 1/

bu.edu/bulawreview/fi…

So pleased to see my paper out in the BU Law Review! This paper surveys 50+ years of randomized control trials in criminal justice and shows that almost no interventions have lasting benefit -- and the ones that do don't replicate in other settings. 1/ bu.edu/bulawreview/fi…
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David Sumpter(@Soccermatics) 's Twitter Profile Photo

When scouting players we want measurements to be repeatable over seasons: that a player can do what they did previous season in the coming season.

Finishing does not have that property, even over a season. Each dot below compares the finishing of a player between two seasons...

When scouting players we want measurements to be repeatable over seasons: that a player can do what they did previous season in the coming season. Finishing does not have that property, even over a season. Each dot below compares the finishing of a player between two seasons...
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Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Suppose we have the 3 hypothetical scenarios below for the % of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 per day. If we test everyone by PCR on day 30, what percentage will test positive?

See the quoted post for the answer...

Suppose we have the 3 hypothetical scenarios below for the % of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 per day. If we test everyone by PCR on day 30, what percentage will test positive? See the quoted post for the answer...
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stuart mcdonald(@ActuaryByDay) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This analysis on @telegraph front page is fundamentally flawed.

It compares death counts in 2023 with the 2015-19 average, concluding that there have been 53,000 excess deaths.

But around half of that is explained by the ageing population which means deaths increase each year.

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Emmanuel(@ejustin46) 's Twitter Profile Photo

How MANY PEOPLE are currently INFECTED with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK ?

An excellent review of Adam Kucharski
kucharski.substack.com/p/counting-cur…

How MANY PEOPLE are currently INFECTED with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK ? An excellent review of @adamjkucharski kucharski.substack.com/p/counting-cur…
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Adam Kucharski(@adamjkucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

How many people are currently infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the UK? And is this even a sensible question to ask? Some thoughts on diagnostics, dynamics and how to interpret data from the new ONS winter COVID infection (and other random testing surveys):

kucharski.substack.com/p/counting-cur…

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Emily Kucharski(@EmKucharski) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Turned out to be a busy Xmas period (who'd have thought!?) but have finished now with 20 insights from our community covering everything from sleep and feeding to behaviour and parental wellbeing.

Please share with anyone who might find it helpful!

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