Looking forward to this discussion! Peterson Institute Cecilia Malmström

The problem for the #EU is that our threat (closing the market to #Chinese goods) is not credible and #China knows it. There is neither consensus nor strong enough tools as long as the #EU does not invoke national security clause at #WTO like the #US A Reader

#China ’s local #government #debt expansion: what will happen next?
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/chinas-local…

My interview for AI Jazeera TV on #China 's President #Xi 's visit to President #Macron . The anchor insisted that Macron would have no choice but to accept #China 's support to #Russia so I had no choice but to disagree 🤔. Interesting conversation which can only happen in a life…

Thoughts for Euractiv: ' #Beijing ’s response has been relatively 'muted' because it is keen to avoid an escalatory spiral of anti-subsidy investigations, which would jeopardise Xi’s broader strategic mission of driving a wedge between #Europe and the #US .'…

Our #China #Economic #Data set is updated again with new data, this time on the financial sector. Bruegel You can find more info on our publications for this #Horizon project financed by the #EU #Commission here chinahorizons.eu

mailchi.mp/bruegel/update…

Here is my oped for The Edge Singapore The Edge Singapore: 'Will the #Indian economy ever surpass that of #China ?'

theedgesingapore.com/views/global-e…

Thoughts for South China Morning Post on Asia's high-end #shipping sector: ' #SouthKorea is really worried. Too many new sectors are going #China ’s way.'

scmp.com/economy/global…

Another crucial way is to increase the labor share since China has continued to subsidize capital for too long. It has helped build real estate/ infra and now excess capacity in manufacturing so not sure the model has been so successful as sometimes claimed Brad Setser

How to revive Chinese consumer demand?

It isn't hard. A more progressive tax system (take less). More social benefits, especially for health. And have the central government fund it out its own balance sheet (central gov debt is low)

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#China has finally announced its #ThirdPlenum in #July .
#Fiscal #reform is a must. Local governments need their own sources of financing ASAP. The direction so far seems to be that the Central Government financing gets cheaper and cheaper and uses growing transfers. What next?

Here is our 中華mundus monthly newsletter curated by
Bruegel
. The topic this time is China's innovation and strategic competition in technology. This newsletter draws from a conversation with Paul S. Triolo encapsulated in a podcast that you can also find in this…

Regarding #China 's plummeting #sovereign #yields , note that China's natural (i.e. equilibrium) interest rates have been coming down slowly but steadily, as estimated by Natixis Research CIB. China's actual interest rates are still higher than equilibrium ones so there is a way to go…

#China 's industrial profits fell 3.5% after 7 months of profit growth. If we add to this the underwhelming #PMI today (both for services and manufacturing), we should start worrying about second Q2 GDP.

Some thoughts for Brazilian state-owned media Broadcast Broadcast on #China ’s #deflation : “China also won't allow deflation to drive public #debt too high, which is already at 100% of gross domestic product. This could risk a sovereign rating downgrade by rating agencies.”…

Michal Krystyanczuk and I have just published a journal article “How Does #China Conduct #Industrial #Policy : Analyzing Words Versus Deeds” with the support of a research grant from European Union as part of the China Horizons project that has received funding from the European…

Views for The Straits Times on #China 's #overseas #investment : 'China wants to produce overseas so the trade surplus is reduced and most importantly, overcapacity is reduced. I expect this pace to continue very aggressively. But they will still face protectionism.'…

I'm very happy to be the speaker of the hybrid seminar ' #China ’s #Industrial Policy: Words versus Deeds' organized by East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore East Asian Institute (EAI). Join us if you are interested in the topic!
Date: Thursday, 9 May 2024
Time: 2:30 pm - 4:00 pm…