This is my new favorite bird at the moment, other than my constant, the osprey. (In the birds’s world, male usually are the ones who have the flashier colors and need to be “pretty” to attract females. Why it is the reverse in the human world is …against the natural order of

So close, yet so far.

There are potential rhymes of 70s inflation today: favorable base effect of inflation decline after two years about to exhaust, Fed pivot just when that happens, just when a second oil shock may strike, officials possibly overestimating productivity, Fed keen on achieving a soft

Great thread. Melody has been ahead this. My own home insurance premium went up by 30% and 50% this year.

US credit-card delinquency rates were the highest on record in the fourth quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia report. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Economics

Car insurance cpi jumped 2.6% in March. The problem with this kind of services inflation is that it will still keep on going in a recession.

Car prices may continue to contribute to disinflation in the rest of the year, but the residual impact of two years of high cars inflation is still working its way to other auto-related services categories. Looks like the order of spillovers go like this: car prices -> car parts

Why the unemployment rate can go up even if jobless claims remain low, in BLS own words: “The unemployment data derived from the household survey in no way depend upon the eligibility for or receipt of unemployment insurance benefits.”

If you also believe that immigration drive

BLS has a very clear exposition of the household vs establishment survey now: bls.gov/web/empsit/ces…

There is a simple chart there that is very striking. No need to say more. It is amazing that markets are pricing in a no landing given this.

JOLTS takeaway today: for medium to large firms, the jobs-to-vacancy ratio is already back to prepandemic. Read more Bloomberg Terminal : blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/S…

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