Dimiter Toshkov(@DToshkov) 's Twitter Profileg
Dimiter Toshkov

@DToshkov

European Union politics and governance, research methods and design, data visualization, bureaucracy and public administration @PA_UniLeiden

ID:2557408332

linkhttp://www.dimiter.eu calendar_today09-06-2014 19:44:43

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Sam Stemper(@samstemper) 's Twitter Profile Photo

With the release of PISA 2022, the long-standing global decline in PISA scores has many of you asking: is it the phones?

Ronak Jain and I have a new working paper that tries to shed some light on the question.

Details below… 🧵

With the release of PISA 2022, the long-standing global decline in PISA scores has many of you asking: is it the phones? Ronak Jain and I have a new working paper that tries to shed some light on the question. Details below… 🧵
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Macartan Humphreys(@maqartan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Alan Jacobs and I are delighted to announce the publication of our new book 'Integrated Inferences'

See here: integrated-inferences.github.io for links to:

* The book plus open access version (thanks Cambridge!)
* Accompanying R package on CRAN: CausalQueries
* Guide to the package

@alan_jacobs1 and I are delighted to announce the publication of our new book 'Integrated Inferences' See here: integrated-inferences.github.io for links to: * The book plus open access version (thanks Cambridge!) * Accompanying R package on CRAN: CausalQueries * Guide to the package
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Honorata Mazepus(@HMazepus) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Facing loss of power, Morawiecki proposed to strengthen opposition rights in 🇵🇱 'Opposition day' in the parliament, opposition parity in committees, pluralism of voices. After 8 ys of undermining checks&balances, PiS promises to champion them. Research with Dimiter Toshkov came to life

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Dimiter Toshkov(@DToshkov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is a great example illustrating *collider bias*: conditional on being an NBA 🏀player, height is negatively correlated with athleticism, but in the general population there is probably no or even a positive relationship between the two variables.

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Anton (Anjo) Peez(@antonpeez) 's Twitter Profile Photo

1🥁| New working paper w/ Felix Bethke:
Does public opinion on foreign affairs affect political elites’ policy preferences?
Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elites.
osf.io/preprints/soca…

1🥁| New working paper w/ @F_Bethke: Does public opinion on foreign affairs affect political elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that it does, but this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to elites. osf.io/preprints/soca…
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The People Lab(@HKS_PeopleLab) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🚨 NEW PAPER IN Nature Human Behaviour 🚨

Across contexts, we find a counterintuitive : Formal government communications are more effective than informal ones at shifting residents’ behavior.

With Chris Larkin, Lindsay Moore, Elspeth Kirkman

rdcu.be/drRnl

🚨 NEW PAPER IN @NatureHumBehav 🚨 Across contexts, we find a counterintuitive #FormalityEffect: Formal government communications are more effective than informal ones at shifting residents’ behavior. With @chris_e_larkin, @lindsay_m_moore, @Karminker rdcu.be/drRnl
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Alexander Kustov(@akoustov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Why do voters favor radical right-wing populists like Geert Wilders? Our new study suggests it's simply because voters agree with populists' substantive policy positions on immigration & other issues, not because they find their populist rhetoric appealing
doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2…

Why do voters favor radical right-wing populists like Geert Wilders? Our new study suggests it's simply because voters agree with populists' substantive policy positions on immigration & other issues, not because they find their populist rhetoric appealing doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2…
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Dimiter Toshkov(@DToshkov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Er zijn grote verschillen in de beleidsstandpunten van PVV- en VVD-aanhangers, bijvoorbeeld over asiel, de EU, maar ook over stikstof.
Data van mei dit jaar, dus de verschillen kunnen groter zijn geworden, als de PVV-vertrekkende aanhangers van de VVD van kant wisselden.

Er zijn grote verschillen in de beleidsstandpunten van PVV- en VVD-aanhangers, bijvoorbeeld over asiel, de EU, maar ook over stikstof. Data van mei dit jaar, dus de verschillen kunnen groter zijn geworden, als de PVV-vertrekkende aanhangers van de VVD van kant wisselden.
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Dimiter Toshkov(@DToshkov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

If the projections hold up, not a good day for pollsters in the Netherlands. The latest aggregated poll Peilingwijzer before the election had PVV at 27 seats. 35 is well out of the confidence interval.

If the projections hold up, not a good day for pollsters in the Netherlands. The latest aggregated poll @peilingwijzer before the election had PVV at 27 seats. 35 is well out of the confidence interval.
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Dimiter Toshkov(@DToshkov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I think it's important in this kind of studies to specify that the estimated effect includes the effect of school closures AND the effect of the pandemic itself. The implication is NOT that had schools remained open during the pandemic, learning outcomes would've been just fine.

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