To prevent major Russian breakthroughs in 2024, Kyiv will need to regenerate more manpower—and receive more lethal aid from the West, writes Dara Massicot.
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Eighteen months after the end of the Tigray war, Ethiopia is facing a crisis exacerbated by both domestic problems and external threats, write Alex de Waal and Mulugeta Gebrehiwot Berhe. How can Washington help prevent further fragmentation?
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“With its new status as a champion of Ukraine, France stands a better chance than ever of making the case for European unity and power.”
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In recent years, American officials have spoken at great length about competition with China, writes Ryan Hass. But Washington still lacks a clear answer to an essential question: What is the outcome U.S. policymakers seek in this competition?
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ability to restructure the Indian polity as a Hindu nation and intensify the marginalization of Muslims over the next five years will depend on the size of his majority in the coming election, writes Hartosh Singh Bal.
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“The quagmire in the Middle East presents an opportunity for a breakthrough in a four-decade strategy by Tehran to debilitate one of its foremost regional adversaries, Israel—and to humiliate Washington and drastically diminish its influence in the region.”trib.al/VAjf3KL

“What U.S. officials need first is clarity about the contest with China. They have to recognize that rising tensions are inevitable in the short run if the United States is to deter war and win the contest in the long run.”
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The United States must maintain its military presence in Iraq to address the threats posed by rogue militia groups, most of which have been nurtured by Iran, argues Mina Al-Oraibi.
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“Once the war in Gaza winds down, the United States should not return to the consuming daily grind of crisis management in the Middle East that the George W. Bush administration embraced after 9/11,” write Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson.
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“The Middle East’s problems are large, enmities run deep, and the U.S. presence has shrunk notably in the past decade. Yet further reducing the U.S. role is perilous.” Read Daniel Byman on what would happen if the United States decided to leave the Middle East:
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party appears likely to win in the country’s coming election, writes Hartosh Singh Bal. And if the BJP wins big, Modi will be able to do more to deliver on his promise of creating a Hindu nation.
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“It would be difficult for China to quickly reduce its widening trade surplus, and no one expects the country’s leadership to deliver a fix overnight. But it is alarming that Beijing seems to have made no meaningful effort to right this imbalance.”
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“With the assistance of its friends—especially the United States—Iraq has managed to defeat the most ruthless terrorist organization in recent history,” writes محمد شياع السوداني. Now, it’s time for the U.S.-Iraqi relationship to go beyond security affairs.
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“It is time for the United States to fully exercise its leverage with Israel in service of rolling out a large and comprehensive aid operation in Gaza.”
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To truly defeat Hamas and achieve a better political reality in the Middle East in the long term, Israel will need a bold new leadership willing to chart a course toward the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, writes Ami Ayalon.
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“By accepting the basic idea of a U.S. withdrawal, policymakers in Washington are ignoring the present-day security challenges in Iraq.” Mina Al-Oraibi makes the case for a long-term bilateral agreement to maintain a U.S. troop presence in Iraq:
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“Over the past decade, the Middle East has been flooded with captagon. The drug, a mix of amphetamines and caffeine, has taken Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates by storm—along with the region as a whole.” trib.al/PegNOPK

“India’s Bharatiya Janata Party seems certain to win in the coming election, so the next five years are all but guaranteed to feature further authoritarianism and increasing marginalization of Muslims,” writes Hartosh Singh Bal.
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“The post–October 7 strategic landscape in the Middle East is one that was largely created by Iran and that plays to its strengths.” How can the United States and its regional allies counter Iran’s ambitions?
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Listen to the latest episode of “The Foreign Affairs Interview,” featuring former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk in conversation with editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan:
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