🇺🇸 x 🇨🇳Trade war pessimism/optimism is backed in vogue ahead of US Presidential Election this Nov.
Fun times ahead.
$DXY $SPX $USDCNH $TLT $GLD

Biden Seeks Higher Tariffs on Chinese Steel, Aluminum to Support US Firms bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

'Net stock buying by corporate insiders of publicly traded companies is the lowest in at least a decade.'

via Markets & Mayhem

Israel Vows ‘Unprecedented Response’ To Iranian Missile, Drone Attack

“Tit for tat” is not over yet. From a humanitarian standpoint, let’s hope it’s just words & not real actions.
Geopolitical risk premium ⬆️

dailywire.com/news/israel-vo…

🚨 Geopolitical risk premium 🔼 triggered by Iran's retaliation towards Israel late Sat over #IsraelHamasWar

#Cryptocurency (only market opened now) has reacted quite positively (seems to be acting as a hedge) but has interesting price movements on #BTCUSD #ETHUSD (see below).…

Currency war risk on the rise (not fully priced in yet)

Further downside pressure on the Chinese #yuan due to a 'hesitant' Fed to enact rate cuts in 2024 with a dovish ECB firmed on a June cut in the Eurozone.

Watch the 7.30 key MT resistance on the $USDCNH, China's top…

🚨 Higher interest rates for a longer period may be backed in vogue.

CPI inflationary trends are lagging, we need to monitor market-transacted pricing from tradable instruments that tend to impact inflationary expectations (leading) which in turn manifested upside or downside…

⚪️ Main events in the week ahead for financial markets.

Happy Friday folks! A calming view from Alishan, Taiwan. All is safe so far for my traveling trip, speedy recovery for folks effected by the shockingly earthquake 🙏🇹🇼
#alishan #Taiwan

Happy Easter holidays folks 🪺

Here’s a quick recap on recent key events/economic data & my views on the global markets

🟠 Fri (29 Mar) ~ #Fed Chair Powell was “still working” over Good Friday; remarked that Fed can hold rates steady if inflation does not come down, do not…

📈📉 Alpha K Tactical View
🇺🇸 Nasdaq 100 $NDX shows an increased risk of an imminent multi-week corrective decline sequence. Why?

🔴 The lower limit of a major resistance zone of 18,435/620 has been met.
🔴 Overconcentration risk from 🤖Nvidia $NVDA; its 2024 YTD return of +87%…

📢Currency war 2024 💵💸
Targeting China 🇨🇳?
Surprised move SNB to hike its policy rate ahead of Fed & ECB & less hawkish BoE have triggered a widespread US dollar strength resurgence that totally erased Wed's USD sell-off reinforced by Fed Chair Powell's fairly soon QT tapering…

🇯🇵 $USDJPY 151.87 intraday high so far before #FOMC
🔴 151.95 major risk/resistance level
🔴 Risk event=> New dot plot projections on Fed funds rate & Powell press conference.
🔴 Japan MOF has been quiet yesterday & today despite sharp sell off in JPY
🔴 Sneaky move soon to…

📢 Market participants do not seem to be pricing in a more hawkish 🇯🇵 BOJ today despite lots of local press having 'front-loaded' a more aggressive policy change.

🟠The Nikkei reported in yesterday's US session that YCC is likely to be removed as well.
🟠The implied 10-YR JGB…

📈📉 Alpha K Tactical View
All eyes & ears on 🇯🇵 BoJ tom
🟠 $USDJPY recent rally since last Fri, 15 Mar ex post Rengo better than expected wage hike negotiation results for Japanese employees seems to be mispriced (JPY weakened instead of strengthened)
🟠JGB yield curve…

No major basing yet for Tesla $TSLA 🚙

📈📉 Alpha K Tactical View
🇯🇵 Rengo (Japan's largest labour union federation) has secured a blowout annualized wage increase of 5.28% for Japanese employees in FY 2024/2025

Above last year's annualized increase of 3.58% & above consensus of 4.10%, its biggest jump in wage hike…

📈 📉 Alpha K Tactical View

Watch Nvidia $NVDA this week after last Fri, 8 Mar outside bar/bearish engulfing candle as it has a significant direct influence on $NDX & $SPX

Pre market -0.8% to 868.60

Also it has a significant direct correlation with 🇯🇵Nikkei 225 $NKY. Last…