Chiefs of Staff do not affect the duration, density, or composition of their president's workday
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

Most protests generate internet activity but have limited effects on political attitudes. But the Black Lives Matter protests following the death of George Floyd shifted views on racial discrimination and increased votes for the Democrats
nber.org/papers/w32342

Happiness among young people is declining in the US & UK, such that happiness now increases steadily with age:
nber.org/papers/w32337

Americans overreport their weekly religious service attendance
nber.org/papers/w32334

Important new paper. State & local candidates are like 'unlike those fatcats in DC, I'm close to the people' but lower level elections have the most unrepresentative electorates & donors, lowest info, and are most influenced by money.

ungated: sites.bu.edu/kleinstein/fil…

Very quietly, RFK Jr.’s average vote share in national polls has been shrinking in since he announced his independent bid in October:

Oct: 13.2%
Nov: 13.5%
Dec: 11.2%
Jan: 9.7%
Feb: 11.3%
Mar: 9.9%
Apr (so far): 8.0%

Some voters view the Trump years with a more rosy lens, particularly when it comes to the economy (+10 bump since 2020). But for many, memories of how he handled covid and didn't unite the nation, are exactly as they were at the time.
nytimes.com/2024/04/14/us/…

Signs of a slight shift toward Biden across national pollsters over the past month; still not much correlation with final results historically; not all polls show it, but every point matters in a close race
nytimes.com/2024/04/13/ups…

Does a rural-urban political divide exist among people of color? Trevor E. Brown, Gisela Pedroza Jauregui, Suzanne Mettler, and I looked at 30+ questions on political behavior and policy preferences and find little to no evidence of one. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Spending too much time on social media might be bad for Eric Levitz mental health, but it's great for his ability to fairly evaluate public academic debates, usually better than academics:

Great research review on smartphones & teen mental health:
vox.com/24127431/smart…

donors in each major party are substantially more likely to prioritize Supreme Court nominations than their general public co-partisans are, with Republican donors especially likely to do so
jkastellec.scholar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/…

Public support for withdrawl from international organizations polarized along partisan lines, especially when framed as supporting US national interests
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Court curbing in the US states, including court packing, changing the methods of selection & retention, & impeachment, are associated with other types of democratic backsliding
academic.oup.com/publius/advanc…

Irregardless of what they told you and I, English rules ain't hard and fast rules--mostly, just preachy conventions violated for 100s of years. And here's a funner usage guide to boldly play with:
hookedlansing.com/book/978059344…

Blurbs are in for my next book with David A. Hopkins, Polarized by Degrees: How the Diploma Divide and the Culture War Transformed American Politics. Thanks so much! Thomas Edsall Suzanne Mettler Amy Walter

Pre-order here:
cambridge.org/us/universityp…

I have a new FiveThirtyEight piece out, 'The less you vote, the more you back Trump.'

It reports a striking finding from a new NORC survey: more frequent voters are more pro-Biden & less frequent voters are more pro-Trump.

1/2

abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…

Ballot initiatives in lower-turnout elections can substantially change the electorate for offices that might be lower salience than the initiative, but it is more difficult to change the electorate in our most highly-salient election: the general election for president.

Congress is fearful of Tiktok, but it may be a vital part of how young people engage in politics and civics. Matt Grossmann explores new research on TikTok usage with NetaKliglerVilenchik and Richard Fox.
buff.ly/4ancw4v

Super excited to see this out. Sarah Reckhow was an amazing collaborator. With the politics of education recently becoming such a dominant force in American politics, here’s a review that dives deeper into the longstanding debates and the new ones that are emerging. Check it out!

The evidence that 2004 gay marriage ballot measures helped Bush is more mixed than the political consensus:
- cambridge.org/core/journals/…
- journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
- academic.oup.com/poq/article-ab…