Reminder that this is the geomagnetic Dst index since 1996, lets see what it looks like after 2024 May 12.

45 BT arrival at L1/ACE ahead of Earth, an incredibly strong CME.

An important thing to note with photographing and seeing the aurora is that observations by others are key to you seeing or photographing the absolute peaks of activity. Keep an eye on social media as well as the skies of course!

Oh lawd she comin’ 📈

Massive shock arrival at STEREO-A with -Bz at -40 nT, but a quick northward turn after. If this holds at Earth and with more -Bz, we may see the strongest storm since 2003 or 2005.

A chance that this cloud will make it a bit of a ballache to see the aurora in parts of Kent and Essex although just depends on how thick it is and a strong enough aurora would likely shine through.

A good map from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska shows where the aurora oval is most likely to be seen and how far south (green line) if all predictions DO come off. I don't think it'd be unheard of to see aurora rays to zenith in S England in strong bursts.

Wow!

Plotting protons on a linear scale reveals the classic exponential rise that occurrs prior to CMEs. I expect impact shortly.

#Aurora : rapid rise in ACE EPAM proton levels, the CME is only hours away. We'll likely see an even sharper final rise once the CME impact (at L1 point) is imminent. Then we'll have about ~30-40 minutes lead time before it hits the Earth. More soon! #NorthernLights