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Nick Timiraos

@NickTimiraos

Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”

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linkhttp://www.nicktimiraos.com calendar_today23-07-2009 22:06:04

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One-year-ahead inflation expectations in the preliminary Michigan survey of consumers fell to their lowest level in three years, at 2.9% in January

Five-year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 2.8%

One-year-ahead inflation expectations in the preliminary Michigan survey of consumers fell to their lowest level in three years, at 2.9% in January Five-year-ahead inflation expectations held steady at 2.8%
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Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, core PCE is projected to have been mild last month.

The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov.

This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%.

The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively

Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, core PCE is projected to have been mild last month. The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov. This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively
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Was it all 'just supply' that caused inflation?

Fed governor Chris Waller is not having it.

'If these are temporary supply shocks, when they unwind, the price level should go back to where it was. It's not. Go to Fred. Pull up CPI. Look at that thing.'

Was it all 'just supply' that caused inflation? Fed governor Chris Waller is not having it. 'If these are temporary supply shocks, when they unwind, the price level should go back to where it was. It's not. Go to Fred. Pull up CPI. Look at that thing.'
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Research co-authored by NY Fed President John Williams looks at reserves as a share of bank assets and suggests <13% is the level at which reserves might be considered ample.

Currently that corresponds to around $3 trillion in reserves.

newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/m…

Research co-authored by NY Fed President John Williams looks at reserves as a share of bank assets and suggests <13% is the level at which reserves might be considered ample. Currently that corresponds to around $3 trillion in reserves. newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/m…
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The rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage held at 6.75% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's near a six-month low, but excluding these last six months, that's near 20-year highs

The rate on the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage held at 6.75% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That's near a six-month low, but excluding these last six months, that's near 20-year highs
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Question to Waller from David Wessel: Why not just stop balance sheet runoff now so you don't have to pussyfoot around and find the appropriately low level of reserves?

Waller points to this paper. There's bad optics of paying excessive interest to banks research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2010-0…

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The speed with with balances in the Fed’s ONRRP facility have fallen over the last few months and the faster rate of Treasury runoff in balance sheet runoff are prompting Fed officials to start thinking about dialing back (but not ending) QT for Treasuries wsj.com/economy/centra…

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At the last Fed meeting before he became chair in 2018, Jay Powell signaled he wanted to take a hard look at revamping the Fed’s framework.

Transcripts from the Fed’s 2018 policy meetings, covering Powell’s first year as chair, have been posted online federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…

At the last Fed meeting before he became chair in 2018, Jay Powell signaled he wanted to take a hard look at revamping the Fed’s framework. Transcripts from the Fed’s 2018 policy meetings, covering Powell’s first year as chair, have been posted online federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
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The CPI and the PCE have opened up a more notable wedge with recent readings, and *early* translations of CPI to PCE for December suggest core PCE running around 0.2%.

The wedge suggests the “last mile” might be easier for PCE than CPI so far

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Atlanta Fed: The wage growth tracker was 5.2% in December, the same as for November.

For job changers, the tracker was 5.7%, the same as Nov. For those not changing jobs, the tracker was 4.9%, up from 4.6% in Nov. atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-grow…

Atlanta Fed: The wage growth tracker was 5.2% in December, the same as for November. For job changers, the tracker was 5.7%, the same as Nov. For those not changing jobs, the tracker was 4.9%, up from 4.6% in Nov. atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-grow…
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Williams on inflation:

“We still have a ways to go to get inflation back” to the target but “we are clearly moving in the right direction.”

“We’re beginning to see significant progress” on core services inflation.

Core services ex-housing inflation “has slowed considerably”

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This week's anticipated data release is the December CPI

Wall Street forecasters expect the core index rose 0.3% from November, lowering the 12-month rate slightly to 3.9%.

They see the headline index up 0.3% from November, pushing the 12-month rate up to 3.3%.

This week's anticipated data release is the December CPI Wall Street forecasters expect the core index rose 0.3% from November, lowering the 12-month rate slightly to 3.9%. They see the headline index up 0.3% from November, pushing the 12-month rate up to 3.3%.
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