exercising a touch of caution

The mathematical case for BTC into the halving is simple. Post-halving there is about ~$25mm of daily structural supply to absorb (per business day). We are beginning to get enough empirical evidence of ETF demand to believe the ETF will likely be able to more than offset this.…

With BTC ETF flows surprising to the upside, the halving 2 months away, the STX Nakamoto upgrade coming in late April and the STX Bitcoin awareness marketing campaign ongoing, we continue to like STX and think it should outperform into what is a truly transformative upgrade.

Still believe ETH will eventually flip BTC. BTC has more long term structural concerns. Less clear to me whether it comes from ETH up or BTC down.

The most expensive bitcoin fund might be MSTR, not GBTC protos.com/the-most-expen…

While these names have corrected from their highs we feel downside remains. Specifically for MSTR, the stock continues to trade at a ~20% premium to its underlying BTC (using conservative assumptions). We do not see a rational reason for this premium to persist, and we have…

Interesting times ahead, think for yourself, don’t listen to others. Be careful, good luck.

STX testnet Neon is now live with 5 second blocks

This is getting more priced in now. Less clear on the outlook from here IMO. As we approach the ETF launch not a whole lot is obvious to me and we are favoring smaller and fewer positions as a result (except STX, leaving that unchanged). Mostly sitting on hands and awaiting new…

Nearly one month later and STX remains the alt that we feel is most likely to rerate. When we look around most alts have already re-rated to the 10B+ FDV range, yet STX is still sitting below 3B with relatively low ongoing emissions. Furthermore, with the Nakamoto upgrade and…

Well here we go, now we get to see if it's priced in, my bias is that it indeed mostly is, but let's see

reuters.com/technology/sec…

'The two executives who participated in Thursday's meetings with SEC officials said the agency indicated it could grant approval in the first few…

Was planning to post this tomorrow but it seems the market is in fast mode at the moment so I'll share some thoughts now. Some of the below overlaps with my earlier ETHBTC post, but with the first Dencun testnet now slated for mid-January and mainnet targeting a Feb launch it…

Does anyone know why Celsius seems to be converting Crypto assets to fiat? My understanding of their plan was that all distributions, and seeding of a potential NewCo would be in kind. So in this context I’m not sure why they appear to be selling (can be seem on chain).

Looking forward to this. Will be a key milestone to monitor as we approach the upgrade.

Seems there is no adverse tax consequence on GS therefore the cash create issue may not impede their conversion.

Agree with James take here. The fact that after the first year it can be taxed as long term cap gains makes this not a huge deal. In net, I don't think this meaningfully changes the ETF impact and think most significant impact is that it may make Grayscale wait to convert.