It's all happening at Poll Bludger, where you can find brand new posts on a NSW state poll, Tasmanian upper house elections, British council elections and recent federal preselections pollbludger.net

I've been treating it as two separate series, marked off at the end of 2023, for bias adjustment purposes

In this respect at least, the Northern Territory shouldn't be the Northern Territory either

If you're after results from #tasvotes at booth level, they are available exclusive (I believe) at Poll Bludger: pollbludger.net/tas2024/Results

By having her empty-headed blather promoted in front page stories for no good reason?

Strange how these people never want FPTP for their own party preselections

First pre-poll result for #dunkleyvotes is par for the course: odds on a Labor win continue to shorten. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

Most recent #dunkleyvotes booths at the low end of the scale for Labor. Both ABC and me now projecting a 4% Liberal swing, as compared with the 6.3% they need to win. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

If the behaviour of pre-polls and postals in swing terms is broadly similar to election day votes, Labor will win #dunkleyvotes . But sometimes it's not. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

Not over yet, but Labor would now be breathing easier after a very nervous state. Eight booths in on the primary vote, Poll Bludger Labor probability estimate is 83%. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

... by clicking on 'Activate' at the bottom of the page

If you're enjoying Antony Green's #dunkleyvotes results map, peruse one at your leisure here: pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

Fourth #dunkleyvotes result much better for Labor: seemingly a swing in their favour at Mount Eliza Central. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

First TCP result from #dunkleyvotes is that first bad booth for Labor -- Liberal swing of 10.0%. But with the two further primary vote booth results, my probability estimate says 53.0% chance Labor win pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

Second and third #dunkleyvotes results less bad for Labor than the first. Poll Bludger estimated Labor win probability: 50.6%. pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…

Polls have closed for #dunkleyvotes . If it's booth-level results you're after, which it should be, you'll find them in table and map form at pollbludger.net/fed2024by1/Res…. Live commentary at pollbludger.net/2024/03/02/dun…. #auspol

There's no point trying this rubbish on Australians. We've have it for over a century and know what the answers are.

Resolve doesn't do those, but based on 2022 preference flows, about 52-48 to Labor

Resolve Strategic: ALP 34 (-1), L-NP 37 (+3), GRN 11 (-1), ON 6 (+1). theage.com.au/politics/feder…

Tom White will be the Liberal candidate in Curtin.