A lot of attention gets paid to Biden’s potential problems with grumpy leftists but the boring truth is Biden 2020 voters who now say they don’t like him are mostly moderate-to-conservative.

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Today in Slow Boring, Liam Kerr 🍍 illustrates what members who need to rely on crossover voters to win have in common — they take genuinely more moderate positions on various issues and break with party leadership more.

slowboring.com/p/democrats-sh…

A corollary of this point is that common sense Democrats need to develop better pipelines for recruiting pragmatists to do staff and campaign work and pushing against the natural tendency for ideologues to be more interested in these roles.

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Young voters' top worries about Biden are just normal boring worries, there's no secret youth vote skeleton key.

blueprint2024.com/polling/key-vo…

Bad Math or Bad Intentions in Michigan?

Media hypes 2% jump in Dem protest votes, downplays yet another Nikki Haley overperformance

Uncommitted hurts Biden
Haley hurts Trump

Size matters: Haley was 3x larger
So does intent: Haley voters can flip

welcomestack.org/p/bad-math-or-…

Can Ukraine survive congressional gridlock?

Congressman Jared Golden is an electoral miracle

Now he's trying to pull off a legislative miracle: getting an anti-Putin bill past Mike Johnson

welcomestack.org/p/golden-mirac…

New piece from me today: Black voters are moderate.

Big thanks to Matthew Yglesias & our pals at Slow Boring for publishing!

Dems must adapt & refine messaging to meet our voters where they are ideologically, particularly as the views of Black voters align so closely with those…

Among Democrats, African-Americans are most hawkish on the border and white people the least with Hispanic Dems in the middle.

slowboring.com/p/black-democr…

My interview with Steven Overly at the Politico Tech Podcast is out today. We discussed the public concern and opposition to AGI and how AI is emerging as the next big bi-partisan issue in Washington.

“When you ask a voter, should we quickly advance towards humanlike artificial…

Last cycle the parties missed key districts like CO-03 and CA-41 where commonsense Democrats performed better than expected against extremist Republicans.

We're launching our Win the Middle slate to support races that will determine the House in 2024. secure.actblue.com/donate/winthem…

'The vast majority of respondents – just over 80% – supported the use of no-kill alternatives, and 71% were willing to pay a premium for eggs produced in systems that use in-ovo sexing technology.'

poultryworld.net/the-industryma…

1/3: Politico covered a new poll released by AIPI today. In summary: “The public is very on board with direct restrictions on [AI] technology and a direct slowdown.”

70% agree that preventing AI from reaching superhuman capabilities should be an important goal of AI policy with…

Mythbusting the Biden polling drama

Time to (Calmly, Productively) Freak Out

Join us tomorrow at 12pm ET with Blueprint pollster Evan Roth Smith for more

welcomestack.org/p/time-to-calm…

New polling from ⁦Blueprint⁩ shows Biden can match voter priorities by focusing on prices, not jobs
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More interesting AI poll results, this time related to Biden’s recent executive order. Yet again, policies that are the most helpful for reducing AI X-risk (starred below, according to my personal assessment) are the most popular!

1/3: New AIPI polling reveals sweeping support across the political spectrum for President Biden's AI Executive Order today. An overwhelming 69% of American voters are in favor, including 64% of Republicans and 65% of Independents.

Respondents were the most supportive of…

Politico covered AIPI’s new AI policy priority poll today. In a poll of over 1,000 Americans, preventing dangerous and catastrophic outcomes was the most popular policy priority, being selected as more important than other areas 77% of the time.

Requiring safety audits (65%)…

A majority of Americans (63%) support a bipartisan governing coalition to elect the next Speaker of the House. Why can’t just 1% of Congress — 5 members — side with the American people? Flip Five WelcomePAC 🍍

AIPI’s polling on Nvidia was mentioned in the WSJ today

The story is Americans don’t like Nvidia’s business practices. The company’s favorability dropped 44% when respondents were informed of Nvidia custom-designing a chip to circumvent US export controls. 71% of Americans…

NEW POLL of Don Bacon 🇺🇸 🥓 ✈️ 🏍️ district from PublicPolicyPolling shows voters overwhelmingly favor a bipartisan speaker vote