Shane Oliver(@ShaneOliverAMP) 's Twitter Profileg
Shane Oliver

@ShaneOliverAMP

Head of Inv Strategy & Chief Economist, AMP. Into boats, pop music, economics, investing, my family..& being nice. I don’t solicit funds/spruik trading schemes

ID:335728282

calendar_today15-07-2011 04:13:30

34,9K Tweets

32,0K Followers

127 Following

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The Bureau of Metrologies' Southern Oscillation Index rose to -3 in December (sort of neutral in terms of El Nino v La Nina). Worth bearing in mind though that 1/ it bounces around a lot month to month 2/ not all El Ninos are the same (seems a bit wet down East Coast Aust lately)

The Bureau of Metrologies' Southern Oscillation Index rose to -3 in December (sort of neutral in terms of El Nino v La Nina). Worth bearing in mind though that 1/ it bounces around a lot month to month 2/ not all El Ninos are the same (seems a bit wet down East Coast Aust lately)
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China Dec composite PMI -0.1pts to a soft 50.3 with manufacturing down slightly and non-manufacturing up slightly. Soft conditions continue. (Goldman Sachs charts)

China Dec composite PMI -0.1pts to a soft 50.3 with manufacturing down slightly and non-manufacturing up slightly. Soft conditions continue. (Goldman Sachs charts)
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For 2023
Oil (US WTI) -10.8% to $71.65
Gold +13.1% to $2062.98
Copper +1.9% to $389.05
Iron ore +22.5% to $136.37

$US (DXY) -2% to $101.4
$A -0.1% to $0.6811
(Bloomberg charts)

For 2023 Oil (US WTI) -10.8% to $71.65 Gold +13.1% to $2062.98 Copper +1.9% to $389.05 Iron ore +22.5% to $136.37 $US (DXY) -2% to $101.4 $A -0.1% to $0.6811 (Bloomberg charts)
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For 2023:
US shares +24.2%
Eurozone shares +15.7%
Japan shares +28.2%
China shares -11.4%
Global shares local currency +21.1%
Aust shares (ASX 200) +7.8% (+12.1% since 30/10)

US 10 yr yld flat at 3.88%
Ger 10 yr yld -54bp to 2.02%
Aust 10 yr yld -10bp to 3.95%
(Bloomberg charts)

For 2023: US shares +24.2% Eurozone shares +15.7% Japan shares +28.2% China shares -11.4% Global shares local currency +21.1% Aust shares (ASX 200) +7.8% (+12.1% since 30/10) US 10 yr yld flat at 3.88% Ger 10 yr yld -54bp to 2.02% Aust 10 yr yld -10bp to 3.95% (Bloomberg charts)
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Eurozone shares +0.2% (flat wk, +15.7% yr)
US shares -0.3% (+0.3% wk, +24.2% yr), -0.6% below record hi
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 3.88%
Oil -0.2% to $71.65
Gold -0.1% to $2062.98
Iron ore +0.1% to $136.4
ASX futures -0.3%
$A 0.6811 with $US index +0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)

Eurozone shares +0.2% (flat wk, +15.7% yr) US shares -0.3% (+0.3% wk, +24.2% yr), -0.6% below record hi US 10 yr yld +4bp to 3.88% Oil -0.2% to $71.65 Gold -0.1% to $2062.98 Iron ore +0.1% to $136.4 ASX futures -0.3% $A 0.6811 with $US index +0.1% (Bloomberg chart)
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Eurozone shares -0.3%
US shares flat, Nasdaq -0.03%
US 10 yr yld +5bp to 3.84%
Oil -2.7% to $71.9
Gold -0.6% to $2066.7
Iron ore -0.3% to $136
ASX futures -0.4%
$A 0.6829 with $US index +0.1%

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CoreLogic Dec month to date home prices
Syd +0.1% (0.1% at mthly rate)
Mel -0.3%
Bri +0.9%
Ade +1.3%
per +1.4%
5 city average +0.3% (+0.4% at mthly rate)
The slowdown in home prices led by Melbourne & Sydney continues as high mortgage rates reassert themselves

CoreLogic Dec month to date home prices Syd +0.1% (0.1% at mthly rate) Mel -0.3% Bri +0.9% Ade +1.3% per +1.4% 5 city average +0.3% (+0.4% at mthly rate) The slowdown in home prices led by Melbourne & Sydney continues as high mortgage rates reassert themselves
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Eurozone shares +0.2%
US shares +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%
US 10 yr yld -11bp to 3.78%
Oil -1.9% to $73.9
Gold +0.5% to $2078.3
Iron ore -0.4% to $136.4
ASX futures +0.4%
$A 0.6847 with $US index -0.4%

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Container freight rates up after Red Sea attacks but still down from levels earlier this year.
(EvercoreISI chart)

Container freight rates up after Red Sea attacks but still down from levels earlier this year. (EvercoreISI chart)
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US Nov durable goods orders +5.4%mom, cap goods orders ex def & aircraft +0.8%mom, both >exp
New home sales -12%mom,< exp
Uni Mich consumer sentiment up slightly to still soft 69.7
1 yr inflation expectation 3.1%
5-10 yr infl expectation 2.9%
Little impact on Fed
Bloomberg charts

US Nov durable goods orders +5.4%mom, cap goods orders ex def & aircraft +0.8%mom, both >exp New home sales -12%mom,< exp Uni Mich consumer sentiment up slightly to still soft 69.7 1 yr inflation expectation 3.1% 5-10 yr infl expectation 2.9% Little impact on Fed Bloomberg charts
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US Nov real pers spending +0.3%mom, in line
PCE inflation -0.1%m/2.6%y, from 2.9%,<exp
Core PCE inflation +0.1%m/3.2%y, from 3.4%,<exp
6 mth annualised core PCE infl just 1.9%
..supporting earlier/faster Fed cuts. Mkt priced for cut in Mar & 6.5 cuts in 2024
Bloomberg, ISI charts

US Nov real pers spending +0.3%mom, in line PCE inflation -0.1%m/2.6%y, from 2.9%,<exp Core PCE inflation +0.1%m/3.2%y, from 3.4%,<exp 6 mth annualised core PCE infl just 1.9% ..supporting earlier/faster Fed cuts. Mkt priced for cut in Mar & 6.5 cuts in 2024 Bloomberg, ISI charts
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Eurozone shares +0.03% (-0.4% wk)
US shares +0.2% (+0.8% wk) with lower than expected PCE inflation
US 10 yr yld +1bp to 3.895%
Oil -0.4% to $73.3
Gold +0.3% to $2052.8
Iron ore +0.1% to $136.2
ASX futures -0.04%
$A 0.68 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)

Eurozone shares +0.03% (-0.4% wk) US shares +0.2% (+0.8% wk) with lower than expected PCE inflation US 10 yr yld +1bp to 3.895% Oil -0.4% to $73.3 Gold +0.3% to $2052.8 Iron ore +0.1% to $136.2 ASX futures -0.04% $A 0.68 with $US index -0.1% (Bloomberg chart)
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Aust Nov credit growth +0.4%mom/+4.7%yoy.
Housing credit +0.4%mom…up from lows but still well down from 2021-22 highs despite record home prices partly because the rebound in home prices has come on low volumes (as evident in housing finance being well down from highs).

Aust Nov credit growth +0.4%mom/+4.7%yoy. Housing credit +0.4%mom…up from lows but still well down from 2021-22 highs despite record home prices partly because the rebound in home prices has come on low volumes (as evident in housing finance being well down from highs).
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Japan Nov CPI inflation slowed to 2.8%yoy from 3.3%
Core (ex food and energy) unchanged at 2.7%yoy
(Goldman Sachs chart)

Japan Nov CPI inflation slowed to 2.8%yoy from 3.3% Core (ex food and energy) unchanged at 2.7%yoy (Goldman Sachs chart)
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Mixed US data
Initial jobless claims +2k, still low, continuing claims -1k
Dec Phily Fed-4.6pts to a soft -10.5 (in range of last yr), prices well down from highs
Sept qtr GDP revised down to +4.9%annualised (from 5.2%), with Q3 core PCE revised down to 2%!
(EvercoreISI charts)

Mixed US data Initial jobless claims +2k, still low, continuing claims -1k Dec Phily Fed-4.6pts to a soft -10.5 (in range of last yr), prices well down from highs Sept qtr GDP revised down to +4.9%annualised (from 5.2%), with Q3 core PCE revised down to 2%! (EvercoreISI charts)
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Eurozone shares -0.2%
US shares +1%, Nasdaq +1.3%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 3.89%
Oil +0.3% to $74
Gold +0.7% to $2044.8
Iron ore +0.6% to $136
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6801 with $US index -0.6%

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UK Nov CPI inflation fell to 3.9%yoy from 4.7%
Core fell to 5.1%yoy to 5.7% with both < exp
Following the US down with a lag
6 mth annualised core infl is 2.5%
BoE likely to remain cautious but could drop its tightening bias at its Feb meeting
(EvercoreISI and Deutsche charts)

UK Nov CPI inflation fell to 3.9%yoy from 4.7% Core fell to 5.1%yoy to 5.7% with both < exp Following the US down with a lag 6 mth annualised core infl is 2.5% BoE likely to remain cautious but could drop its tightening bias at its Feb meeting (EvercoreISI and Deutsche charts)
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US Dec consumer confidence +10 points to 110.7
Nov existing home sales +0.8%mom, stronger than expected and bouncing off low
(Strategas and Bloomberg charts)

US Dec consumer confidence +10 points to 110.7 Nov existing home sales +0.8%mom, stronger than expected and bouncing off low (Strategas and Bloomberg charts)
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Eurozone shares flat
US shares -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.5%…shares had become very overbought technically
US 10 yr yld -8bp to 3.86%
Oil -0.4% to $73.8
Gold -0.5% to $2030.7
Iron ore +0.4% to $135.2
ASX futures -1%
$A 0.6729 with $US index +0.3%

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