TV pundits - pretend you're at Davos by putting on winter gear, having a screen shot of a snowy mountain behind you, and saying things like 'the focus here is on reform for resilience'

Join Bloomberg analysts for a deep dive into geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait in DC this Thursday...

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Jennifer Welch Gerard DiPippo Bloomberg Economics

Collecting holiday retail sales data in the field in a state with one of lowest unemployment rate. Piling up here.

A 🧵 to add to the debate on whether this time is different when it comes to recession. In a piece with Bill Dudley today, we looked into reasons why or why not recession rules will hold in this cycle. First, U-1, U-2, U-3, Uflows say recession trigger is either near or here. 1/5

This week on the Sinica Podcast: The estimable Ian Johnson joins to discuss his brand new book, 'Sparks: China's Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future,' out on Sept. 26. Really enjoyed this conversation! thechinaproject.com/podcast/ian-jo…

A central challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the upcoming FOMC will be signaling determination on controlling inflation, even as he skips a meeting on rate hikes. Our market drivers model show investors are likely already anticipating a 'hawkish skip' message.

Eco data surprises matter for markets!
Check out our new #macro - #finance tool which links #economic #data surprises to the #US #yield #curve . You can run your own surprise scenarios for growth and inflation and get the effect on #US #bond #yield s.
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Our look at how global investment data is beginning to shift along geopolitical faultlines. This was a big team effort with @maevadeba Jennah Haque Shawn Donnan Chloe Whiteaker Yue Qiu @tomorlik Brendan Murray Ramsey Al-Rikabi
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Great speaking with Francine Lacqua and David Merritt on China's property crisis, Janet Yellen, hallucinogenic mushrooms, and other subjects of global concern

Great speaking with H. Andrew Schwartz and Kirti on this CSIS discussion on China and the US

Triumph

Tired of winning? China GDP now shrinking as a share of US GDP finds Gerard DiPippo

NEW US Businessweek COVER! In an exclusive excerpt from his forthcoming book, “Number Go Up: Inside Crypto’s Wild Rise and Staggering Fall,” Zeke Faux descends into a modern-day hell where slaves are being forced to send spammy scam texts bloom.bg/3QCGmv0

Two most interesting things to me from FOMC minutes: 1) More dissent than meets the eyes -- 'A couple of participants indicated that they favored leaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that they could have supported such a proposal.' (1/2)

Read the transcript of our exclusive interview with Taiwan's leading presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, who talks about tensions with China, ties with the US and the future of Taiwan’s chip industry bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Businessweek

The frontrunner in the race to be Taiwan’s next president says he won’t stop the world’s leading chipmaker from building more chip plants in the US or other countries if elected, as part of his efforts to deepen engagement and cooperation with the world. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

A ticking timebomb? Here's what the US gets wrong on its China policy...

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BONUS FRIDAY ODD LOTS:

It's the podcast debut for Paul Krugman

Tracy Alloway and I talked to the Nobel Prize winner about UFOs, aliens, superconductors, AI, interstellar trade, and how his love of Sci-Fi sparked his interest in becoming an economist. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

For Friday reading, here are some never-before-seen photos from the final months of FTX as Sam Bankman-Fried and his associates. Includes private jets, and a giant dog bed (bean bag). By Hannah Miller. bloomberg.com/features/2023-… via Bloomberg Crypto

By the NBS' own estimates, China's 'new economy' accounted for only 17.4% of GDP and 11% of nominal GDP growth in 2022. It's not enough to offset weakness in the 'old economy,' especially real estate. 1/