Tropical (El Niño) and mid-latitude warmth has stolen the show in recent months, but Arctic (anomalous) warmth is an ongoing saga.

For 66-90°N, November-March was the 4th warmest on record (ERA5), behind only 2016-2018.

N. Europe was cold, but at most about 2°C below normal.

Looks like this seasonal forecast from last month verified in just one day ( #Dubai flooding)

According to GHCN monthly data, there was only one site worldwide with a record cold February (minimum 60 years of data) - Magadan in far eastern Russia (reliably colder than normal in an El Niño winter).

There were zero monthly cold records in March.

A *very* interesting preprint. A comparison between Pangu, GraphCast (and FuXi) and IFS HRES regarding extreme events (heat waves, cold spells and wind events).

A new AI approach for predicting ENSO... but a validation period of 2008-2022 implies a sample size of maybe 3 for 'extreme ENSO events' 🧐

Link to paper:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

With El Niño waning, the Atlantic warmth is once again indisputably the most significant oceanic warm anomaly on the planet. Amazing extent of record high March SSTs.

NW Indian Ocean warmth is also highly anomalous (+IOD persisting).

Also from CDPW/CPASW in Tallahassee: confirmation of NCEP/NWS plans for a 30-year twice-per-week GEFSv13 reforecast: a big improvement over the v12 data.

Fully coupled forecasts out to 48 days

Target implementation March 2026

Checking in on near-equatorial SSTs, it's essentially a tie with 2016 for the zonal average at this date.

However, El Niño is ending much more quickly this time, whereas the Atlantic is drastically warmer than in 2016.

Major North Pacific differences too.

An experimental upgrade to our product shows a direct inter-model comparison of medium-range maps, including ECMWF's AIFS (AI model). We include bias correction using model hindcasts where possible. Can't wait for AIFS ensembles...

Context for the European summer outlook: the theme of the last decade has been a ridge over W Russia, low wind in central Europe, and widespread above-trend temperatures.

This seems to be connected to persistent North Pacific warmth since 2013. Will this year buck the trend?