It's not that some external enemy or opponents are threatening the existence of Putin's regime, but rather Putin himself because of his self-defeating decisions, propensity to make moves that create problems for the survival of his system. Maksim Samorukov
npr.org/2024/05/07/124…

The lessons China’s leaders are learning from Russia’s war in Ukraine may be the opposite of those the White House wants them to learn, writes Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士
on.wsj.com/3UNIOAj

Excellent news! Welcome to Carnegie, Oriana Skylar Mastro!

Latest WOTR episode is out. I join Ryan Evans to talk about the impact of the supplemental passing, current situation at the front, and options looking forward. War on the Rocks warontherocks.com/2024/05/what-w…

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'If Ukraine succeeds in pushing back against the Russian army, it could prompt Moscow to plan for even higher military spending in 2025,' writes Alexandra Prokopenko. 'The Kremlin possesses the resources for this, albeit at considerable medium-term economic cost.'
carnegieendowment.org/politika/92326

What a fun and thought provoking conversation!

For anyone who missed it, it's available online here:

youtube.com/watch?v=X9cAfL…

🧵 on apparent improvement in how Russia fights in Ukraine

Today at 2pm!

Join us online or in person👇
events.ceip.org/pivotalstatesr…

Only Russian proxies/sympathizers talk like this about Ukraine.

Totally unacceptable for a US presidential candidate to spread such untruth.

I’m really looking forward to tomorrow’s chat with my friends Fiona Hill and Chris Chivvis. Hope you can join us in person Carnegie Endowment.

Registration info below 👇

Honored by the chance to exchange notes with such terrific colleagues from the newly-launched Russia/Ukraine-focused policy think tank SCEEUS in Stockholm.

Follow them!

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Russia using a missile with cluster munitions in the heart of Odesa. Five people were killed, many more maimed. A war crime as clear as it gets.

A good piece on the state of the Russian economy, by Carnegie's Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/politika/92326. The big picture is that the Russian economy is not growing: the increase in war spending is via redistribution from peoples' consumption (via drop in import and social spending).

Please join us!

An extremely dangerous speech that will chill anyone who cares about Georgia 🇬🇪 to the bone. There will be plenty of commentary but no summary can convey the full-on conspiracy-minded paranoia. Bidzina Ivanishvili seems to believe this stuff. Read in full civil.ge/archives/602348

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More fear-mongering and Ukraine bashing from 3rd party candidate RFK Jr.

'Support for Ukraine is the most important piece of the West’s containment strategy toward Russia in the new cold war,' writes Carnegie Russia Eurasia director Eugene Rumer. 'The Washington [NATO] summit will answer whether the West is up to the challenge.'
carnegieendowment.org/2024/04/25/u.s…