Anyone in #retwit willing share their current intuition and outlook on Housing and the economy?

Are we going to have a hard landing in Q4?

Are rates still coming down this year? Or possibly going up.

What’s the sense among the RE community?

RE: Safe fences

In June of 2023 the City of Austin passed a new “safe fence” regulation to keep children safe.

Then, a few months ago, AISD installed a 5 ft tall metal spiked fence meant to impale intruders around the St. Elmo and Jolson elementary school.

SMH

City of Austin housing inventory up 300% in two years.

Buyers can be more picky and take their time.

Sellers are questioning their decisions.

Now enter an election year… recipe for a dynamic market.

Hope to see some reprieve in construction related commodity prices… the cost to build is too high.

In Austin, construction costs are up 40-60% in just a few short years. The trajectory was unsustainable.

Lost Creek, a little neighborhood in Westlake, voted to remove its self from the City of Austin.

Officials tally not in, but something like 90%+ of residents voted to leave Austin.

Should have an interesting impact on land use regulations, policing, fire and other services.

And maybe I’m in the wrong business?

A cool $2.5M to run Acquisitions in sunbelt multi.

City of Austin authorized $9,000,000 for design and engineering for the new “Wishbone Bridge” connection on Ladybird Lake. (townlake)

I wonder what a private company in the same position would have paid for design and engineering.

Is this market? $9M?

Is anyone surprised Oracle is planning to move its HQ out of Austin?

If you look at the Riverside/Pleasant Valley area, it’s inundated by trash, camping and drug use. The City treats that area as an after thought.

If I were Oracle I would look to move as well. Not surprised.

Houston - 6-12 weeks for a simple replat

Austin 40-60 weeks for a simple replat

Example of crazy COA complexity on small projects.

Proposed a subdivision to split 1 lot into 4 lots.

1 acre to 4 (.25 acre) parcels.

Hired a known engineer and submitted.

How many Drainage and Water quality comments did we get on round 1 for this small project.

1,500 min lot size is a step toward more affordable housing.

In this months issue of why housing costs a shit ton of money…

Austin City Council is about to require Residential developers must “study and test the sound levels” of nearby music venues.

Then developers must disclose to residents they are close to nightlife and music. 🤔

No less than 6 active cranes on Rainey St.

Wild to think just 15 years ago it was a sleepy, residential area with small homes and a few low key bars. Properties could be bought for under 750k.

Now, 10+ mid rise to high rises have been built or are under construction.

At the peak:

Their were homes for sale w 10-20 offers

Builders were being created out of thin air

Realtors were making millions with less than a few years experience

Subs wouldn’t call back and could command any price

Due diligence was thrown out the door

Oh what a time

Austin Multifamily Development is still on a tear.

Yardi is estimating 98,000 units delivering over the next 5YRS. With about 25,000 units this YR.

All this before DB90 and Compatibility eased.

Crazy to think about on a per capita basis.

Data via ResiClub