Fascinating Geoffrey Skelley chart showing asymmetric polarization. Congress has shed moderate Dems, though lefty Dems are about as liberal as they used to be. But all flavors of Republican have moved strongly rightward. abcnews.go.com/538/claims-uni…

It’s official. The Arizona House of Representatives blocked the Democrats' attempt repeal the state’s pre-Roe abortion ban.

BREAKING: Shomari Figures wins Democratic nomination in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District apnews.com/article/alabam…

Shohei Ohtani favorability
April 2024 (change from Dec 2023)

NET FAV: +12 (-5)
Total favorable: 19% (-3)
Total unfavorable: 8% (+3)

4/12-4/14, N=1,029 LV
via Echelon Insights Voter Omnibus

holy burn rate…

Johnson 2024 q1:
Rcp: $9.1 mil
Exp: $7.3 mil

vs McCarthy 2023 q1
Rcp: $28.9 mil
Exp: $12.8 mil

New from James Downs: Takeaways and analysis from Q1 House fundraising reports including a look at how the eight GOP members who voted to oust McCarthy are faring nationaljournal.com/s/724769/ihotl…

FEC reports show that while the Senate battlefield is not in their favor, Democrats have not seen a drop off in campaign contributions and will put up a fight, Kirk A. Bado reports.

Read Hotline's Q1 Senate fundraising roundup here (unlocked):
njour.nl/s/724764/?unlo…

NEW: Maine just passed a law to join the National Popular Vote Compact, giving it 209 of 270 electoral votes needed to activate.

(Maine will still award EVs by House district until then).

This map shows which states could join for it to activate by 2028 dailykos.com/story/2024/4/1…

Our Split Ticket poll:

Biden 37/Trump 39/RFK Jr. 11.
Generic ballot D+2 (44D-42R).

What I do find interesting is how different young voters look here: Trump *wins* them despite Democrats leading the generic ballot with young voters, 49-34.

Why? Read:
split-ticket.org/2024/04/15/cha…

Given that SOTUs have historically not mattered for the president’s popularity, I strongly suspect Biden’s improvement is due not to the SOTU, but rather Trump winning the GOP primary.

Mercy

I thought April Fool’s Day was over

From profiling presidential candidates & their supporters on the campaign trail to breaking down how decisions in Washington impact voters, hear from ABC News National Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd (with free pizza!) TODAY at 12pm.

RSVP (HUID req.): ken.sc/pizpol-0411

New Emerson College poll on the Florida ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution: 42% support it, 25% oppose it, 32% aren't sure. Remember it needs 60% to pass. emersoncollegepolling.com/florida-2024-p…

I have a new FiveThirtyEight piece out, 'The less you vote, the more you back Trump.'

It reports a striking finding from a new NORC survey: more frequent voters are more pro-Biden & less frequent voters are more pro-Trump.

1/2

abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…

For the morning crowd: National Journal Hotline's updated rankings of the 10 Senate races most likely to flip
1. #WVSEN
2. #MTSEN
3. #OHSEN
4. #NVSEN
5. #MISEN
6. #PASEN
7. #WISEN
8. #AZSEN
9. #TXSEN
10. #MDSEN
njour.nl/s/724729/?unlo…

The Athletics will relocate to Sacramento at season’s end, leaving behind Coliseum workers who, in some cases, have held their jobs for decades. I spoke to several about how they learned of the news, what those jobs meant to their lives, and what's next cbssports.com/mlb/news/oakla…

Hard not to see this as retaliation for efforts to kick Trump off the ballot. The norms, they are a-frayin’.

Honestly surprised it took even this long!

News: Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is weighing his exit from the Biden administration — likely after the November election — to run for California governor in 2026.

w/ Dustin Gardiner Adam Cancryn

politico.com/news/2024/04/0…