Just 55 per cent of the 2019 Boris Base would react negatively to a Keir Starmer premiership
via Redfield & Wilton Strategies
sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/04/the-re…

Last night's Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone (North Yorkshire) council by-election result:

LDEM: 43.8% (-7.8)
CON: 30.8% (-4.0)
GRN: 15.1% (+15.1)
REF: 5.7% (+5.7)
LAB: 4.6% (-2.6)

Valid votes cast: 2,495

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

[Corrected] medium.com/britainelects/…

Last night's Inverness South (Highland) council by-election result, first preferences:

IND: 22.1% (+22.1)
LDEM: 19.7% (+11.1)
SNP: 19.4% (-15.8)
CON: 16.1% (-0.8)
LAB: 11.0% (+3.8)
GRN: 7.2% (+1.8)

No other Ind (-24.8) as prev.

Valid votes cast: 3,305

medium.com/britainelects/…

📊 Labour lead at 15pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (-3)
CON: 27% (+3)
REF: 10% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via Savanta UK, 05 - 07 Apr
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 18pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42%
CON: 24%
REF: 13%
LDEM: 10%
GRN: 5%

via J.L. Partners, 04 - 07 Apr
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/britai…

Britain Predicts Blackpool South forecast:
Lab gain by 20pts

LAB: 50% (+12)
CON: 30% (-20)
REF: 14% (+8*)

*chgs. w/ Brex19

Writeup: sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/04/blackp…

New post:
> On Blackpool South
> On how Leave voting seaside towns will remain battleground seats
> On whether Reform will pip the Tories for second
sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/04/blackp…

Last night's Desborough (North Northamptonshire) council by-election result:

CON: 47.3% (+7.5)
LAB: 33.6% (+6.0)
GRN: 11.7% (+2.7)
LDEM: 7.4% (-2.3)

No Ind (-14.0) as prev.

Valid votes cast: 3,141

Conservative HOLD.
medium.com/britainelects/…

Last night's Uckfield New Town (Wealden) council by-election result:

IND: 37.0% (+7.2)
LAB: 36.7% (-7.5)
CON: 26.3% (+0.3)

Valid votes cast: 1,573

Independent HOLD/GAIN from Independent.
Prev Ind seat was second-placed winner in two-member ward.
medium.com/britainelects/…

Last night's Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos and Lanteglos (Cornwall) council by-election result:

LDEM: 44.8% (-16.5)
CON: 30.7% (+0.4)
LAB: 18.9% (+10.5)
GRN: 5.6% (+5.6)

Valid votes cast: 1,347

Liberal Democrat HOLD.
medium.com/britainelects/…

Polls are about to close in today's three by-elections. Your Andrew's Previews briefing is available now at medium.com/britainelects/…

How healthy is Labour's lead?

📊 Voting intention:
Lab +20

💷 Best party on the economy:
Lab +11

🥊 Likeability, Starmer vs Sunak:
Starmer +11

❤️ Starmer's NET approval:
+2

Drilldown:
buff.ly/49ILwvB

It's by-election Maundy Thursday!
- 3 polls today in GB's three countries, defences Lab/LD/Ind
- Possibly the UK's most misnamed ward
- A brand-new council in financial difficulty
- And offshore power in many senses
Andrew's Previews for @britainelects: medium.com/britainelects/…

📊 Labour lead at 19pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (-3)
CON: 25% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
REF: 10% (-1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via WeThink, 27 - 28 Mar
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 18pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (-2)
CON: 26% (+3)
REF: 11% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via Deltapoll, 22 - 25 Mar
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

📊 Labour lead at 19pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 40% (-4)
CON: 21% (+2)
REF: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)

via YouGov, 26 - 27 Mar
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/britai…

📊 Labour lead at 20pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 42% (-5)
CON: 22% (+1)
REF: 14% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+4)
GRN: 6% (-)

via Redfield & Wilton Strategies, 24 Mar
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/08/britai…

📊 Labour lead at 21pts
Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 43% (-1)
CON: 22% (-)
REF: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (+1)

via Techne UK
buff.ly/3RtUuW6

Heckington Rural (North Kesteven) council by-election result:

CON: 33.7% (-26.9)
LIND: 29.2% (+29.2)
LDEM: 27.3% (+27.3)
LAB: 9.7% (-29.6)

LIND: Lincolnshire Independents

Valid votes cast: 1,262

Conservative HOLD.
medium.com/britainelects/…