So excited to announce that @natasharsarin and Danny Yagan and I are launching @the_budget_lab at Yale Law School. Budget scoring is an incredibly important part of the policy process and our hope is to bring a new perspective, with a focus on innovation and transparency. 1/

Incredible shift: Wall Street has taken a June rate cut off the table.

A week ago the market was pricing in a 60% chance the Fed would cut rates in June.

Now it's a 16.5% chance.

Disinflation has stalled - as Karen Dynan pointed out yesterday Peterson Institute #globaleconomicprospects ahead of today's CPI release. Not a reason for panic as so many rightly note. But this is not just a blip or special factors.
tom keene Diane Swonk Jason Furman

JUST IN: Inflation in March came in hotter than expected: 0.4% for the month and 3.5% in the past year. (The forecast was for 0.3% and 3.4%)

Gas and rent accounted for over HALF the March increase.

Higher gas price and high rent are keeping inflation above 3%.

The #CaitlinClark effect

Countless kids (esp. little girls) are walking onto basketball courts and giving the game a try.

I witnessed it today with my daughter.

This entire women’s college bball season has been magical. Thank you to all the players

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

Good news: There was a big jump in the labor force (+469,000) in March. That means more people are looking for work again. This is a great sign of confidence in the economy.

Labor force participation = 62.7%
The slowdown in participation in Dec/Jan/Feb really reversed in…

Huge job gains in March: 303,000 jobs added. About 25% were in healthcare and 25% in gov't.

Healthcare +72,000 (Hospitals 27k)
Gov't +71,000 (federal 9k, state 13k, local 49k) --> 28k were in education

Hospitality +49,000
Construction +39,000
Retail +18,000
Biz +7,000…

JUST IN: Another blockbuster month for jobs. The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March — way above expectations. The big gains were healthcare (72k) and gov’t (71k).

Unemployment rate: 3.8% (vs 3.9% in Feb)

Wage growth: 4.1% in past year (well above 3.2% inflation)

“Here’s why Americans under 40 are so disillusioned with capitalism…Young people in America have come of age during the Great Recession, the sluggish recovery that followed and then the coronavirus pandemic.”
V-good ⁦Heather Long⁩ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

Really appreciate Heather Long's point--if business leaders wanted to restore retirement security, then they should support strengthening Social Security. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

Today’s ⁦The Wall Street Journal⁩

The incredible run for U.S. corporate profits continues: Margins for nonfinancial firms widened again in the fourth quarter, remaining well above 1951-2019 levels (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…)