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Out of office response: “Hello. No, I didn’t see [insert poll of the week]. Based on what you describe the results look directionally correct. Still, I wouldn’t read too much into specific numbers given [insert methodological limitation].”

We enjoyed hearing Galen Druke stump the panel with our youth likelihood to vote polling data on the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast—though congrats to Carlos Odio for getting closest! youtube.com/watch?v=wC4Eq7…

Informative episode about the negotiations surrounding immigration and border security with the great Carlos Odio
⬇️
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wil…

🎧 New pod 🎧

Will politics or policy win out at the border?

w/ Carlos Odio, Rachael Bade & Leah Askarinam

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fiv…

Starting ‘24 positively. Jessica Cobian (Jessica Cobian) & I are super pleased to share our Annual Review essay on Latino Politics (pre-pub).

This was a big responsibility to write. It was also stressful because we can’t cover everything.

annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.114…

I have a new piece up at Vox that tries to go past the headlines about Biden and young voters.

Is Biden’s gen Z doom spiral real?

vox.com/politics/24034…

But Carlos Odio warns Dems can only take so much comfort 2022 b/c “So much of the dynamism and volatility in the Latino vote is among less frequent voters. In important ways, you almost have to clear 2022 out of your mind.” Some Ds believe the same is true among Black voters

🚨🚨@kirswal & I went deep on AZ & MI. There's a lot to read if you're interested in the Latino vote, education polarization, youth voter turnout, Sunbelt vs. Rustbelt battlegrounds, and how to figure out (or not) if turnout or persuasion explains changes in election outcomes〽️☀️

Drop what you’re doing. It’s a Catalist report day, for those who celebrate.

Went instantly to a top spot on my bookmarks. Kudos to Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas 🇲🇽 & team!

The start of a new effort to gather in one place the best practices for Latino engagement, starting with a high-level understanding of the role of Spanish creative — see the thread!

I had a great convo with Carlos Odio on FiveThirtyEight to get under the top lines of recent voters of color headlines…thanks Galen Druke

Finally got to do one of these with Terrance Woodbury HIT Strategies, to mark the ceremonial opening of polling freakout season

Out of office response: “Hello. No, I didn’t see [insert poll of the week]. Based on what you describe the results look directionally correct. Still, I wouldn’t read too much into specific numbers given [insert methodological limitation].”

Awkward day at the office (Equis Research)

Glad to join David Nir & Joe Sudbay on this one!

The 2022 midterm election postmortem report from Equis Research found that Nevada Latinos supported Democrats at nearly identical rates to President Joe Biden’s 2020 race, demonstrating the party’s enduring political branding in the state. thenevadaindependent.com/article/analis…

A wonderful summation of the report that also builds on its implications for 2024