journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/72…

'A 20-year-old today is about as likely to claim a health-related benefit as a 39-year-old was in 2019. A 35-year-old today is about as likely to claim as a 46-year-old in 2019.'

👆 I found this a helpful way to frame the scale of the recent surge in disability benefit claims.

EVENT: Professor Heidi L. Williams will give the 2024 IFS Annual Lecture on ‘Innovation and productivity policies: a budgetary perspective’

Wednesday 15 May | 6:30-8pm | The View, The Royal College of Surgeons of England

Register to attend in person here: ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-ann…

NEW: Inheritance tax is littered with special exemptions.

Read Arun Advani and David Sturrock's Election 2024 comment on three reforms that would move towards closing some of these loopholes, make the system fairer and raise revenues: ifs.org.uk/articles/raisi…

Look how UK govt spending and revenues have grown over last 25 years, catching up with other countries.

More catch up on spending than on revenues (despite big increase in latter since 2019).

UK debt moved from well below G7 average to above, and to well above broader average.

NEW: Spending as much as other countries but taxing less is unlikely to be sustainable.

How do the UK’s levels of tax and spend compare to other advanced economies?

Read our latest comment here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spend…

The UK govt now spends as much as the average advanced economy. But we still raise less in tax than the average. As a result, we've gone from having below-average to above-average government debt levels.

New from my (non-tweeting) Institute for Fiscal Studies colleagues: ifs.org.uk/articles/spend…

📺 Whoever is Chancellor after the election is going to have a tough job.

We've built a new interactive tool with Nesta that lets you step into the Chancellor's shoes and see that for yourself.

Are you ready to be the Chancellor? Now's your chance ⬇️
ifs.org.uk/election-2024/…

Sure Start worked. It had big long term effects on the educational achievement of poor children. Its demise is a study in policy failure - over centralisation, over extension, poor data, 'not invented here syndrome'. thetimes.co.uk/article/sure-s…

🎙 What is government debt? How much of it is there? And how is it different from personal debt?

Professor David Miles Imperial College Business School answers key questions on government debt and its impact on the economy for IFS Zooms In Paul Johnson.

Listen here linktr.ee/ifszoomsin

Again an educational experience for me talking to the brilliant Anand Menon and Hannah White about populism. Again I’m asking all the daft questions and they are patiently explaining.

Well worth a listen.

Housing wealth inequality *within* generations is growing

As ever, John Burn-Murdoch leaves me wondering “why didn’t I make that chart?”

In the talk about the lucky half getting parental help remember: most get little but a few get a lot! (see Institute for Fiscal Studies chart from me & Bee Boileau)

NEW: Progression of nurses within the NHS

George Stoye and Max Warner's HSCWRU report examines the career progression of NHS nurses in England, how this compares with that of other NHS staff groups and how this has changed over time.

Read here: ifs.org.uk/publications/p…

NEW PODCAST: Should we worry about government debt?

How has the debt level grown? Should we aspire to reduce it? And do we need to worry about high debt to GDP ratios?

This week Paul Johnson speaks to Professor David Miles Imperial College Business School.

ifs.org.uk/articles/shoul…

Strong positive effects of SureStart on GCSE results for poorer children. More strong evidence that well designed early intervention can be very effective.

Also shows importance of high quality evaluation. Great work by my colleagues.

Policymakers take note.

Great thread on what we've learned about the Sure Start programme:

We find that for every £1 the government spent on Sure Start, children who attended benefited by £1.09 in terms of their lifetime earnings, even before accounting for health and other outcomes.

[9/10]

A key takeaway from this thread and our report: the large effects we see at GCSE are driven by one type of centre (SSLPs).

These had bigger budgets, with more spending on teacher input into learning and outreach to families in need of extra support, with big impacts.

Very happy to have been elected as a fellow of the
The Econometric Society. Thank you to my family, and all my friends, colleagues and co-authors who made this possible.

📈 #IFSSatStat : Both @rishisunak and Liz Truss’s tax cuts would primarily benefit higher-income households, though this would only partially offset the progressivity of existing plans.

Read our analysis of the Conservative leadership election: ifs.org.uk/conservative-l…