The Prices Paid component of ISM Manufacturing has moved up to its highest level since June 2022, potentially signaling higher inflation for longer. This was a leading indicator of the inflationary spike in 2021-22 and the cooling of inflation in 2022-23.

The tightest labor market in US history continues to loosen with Job Openings moving down to 8.49 million (lowest since Feb 2021) and the Quits Rate moving down to 2.1% (lowest since Aug 2020).

The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year...

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Expectations Are Everything (The Week in Charts)...

The correlation between US stocks and bonds over the last 3 years (0.70) is the highest on record.

Expectations Are Everything (The Week in Charts)...

April...
Silver $SLV: +6%
Gold $GLD: +3%
US Dollar $UUP: +2%
Emerging Markets $VWO: +1%
Cash $BIL: +0.4%
Crude Oil $USO: -0.4%
Aggregate Bonds $AGG: -2%
Developed ex-US $VEA: -3%
S&P 500 $SPY: -4%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: -4%
Small Caps $IWM: -7%
REITs $VNQ: -8%
Bitcoin $IBIT: -17%

2024 YTD...
Bitcoin $BTC: +43%
Crude Oil $USO: +18%
Gold $GLD: +11%
Silver $SLV: +10%
S&P 500 $SPY: +6%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +4%
Emerging Markets $VWO: +3%
Developed ex-US $VEA: +2%
Cash $BIL: +2%
Small Caps $IWM: -2%
Aggregate Bonds $AGG: -3%
REITs $VNQ: -9%
Volatility $VXX: -12%

The S&P 500 fell 1.3% today, the 7th daily decline >1% this year. The first 3 months of 2024 were an abnormally smooth ride higher. In April we saw more normal volatility w/ four >1% declines. Still a mild year overall - on pace for 21 big declines vs. 29 in avg year since 1928.

Global Central Bank Update:
-Colombia cut rates for the 4th time since last December, 50 bps decrease to 11.75%.

Amazon Revenue (Billions)...
2024 (est): 641
'23: 575
'22: 514
'21: 470
'20: 386
'19: 281
'18: 233
'17: 178
'16: 136
'15: 107
'14: 89
'13: 74
'12: 61
'11: 48
'10: 34
'09: 25
'08: 19
'07: 15
'06: 11
'05: 8.5
'04: 6.9
'03: 5.3
'02: 3.9
'01: 3.1
'00: 2.8
'99: 1.6
'98: 0.6
$AMZN

Incredible: Amazon's AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($94 billion) was higher than the revenue of 466 companies in the S&P 500. $AMZN

Amazon revenues increased 13% over the last year to a new 1st quarter record of $143 billion. Net Income increased 229% YoY to $10.4 billion, also a record # for the first quarter. $AMZN

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The Week in Charts...

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Tomorrow's news today...

BREAKING: THE FED HOLDS INTEREST RATES AT 5.25-5.50%, CITING FIRMER PRICE PRESSURES AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT INFLATION WILL MOVE DOWN TO THEIR 2% TARGET THIS YEAR.