We have made a new group photo! If you want to be part of our international team, watch out for fall 2024 when new positions will be announced.
helioforecast.space/team
🐕

This is how our #solarstorm forecast using Solar Orbiter magnetometer data turned out so far - not bad 🙂. In panel 4, the black line is the observed Dst, the shaded region our forecast. The timing is a bit off, but: our prediction was -85 nT +/- 20 nT, the minimum Dst so far is -130 nT.👇

HOWEVER, which is good news for #aurora watchers at high and mid-latitudes: The CME is superfast. When it arrives later today it should arrive with speeds around 820 km/s or 3 million kilometers per hour. It traveled from the Sun to Earth in only about 40 hours! ☀️🌬️🌍

If what Solar Orbiter saw at 10° west of Earth at 0.4 AU is representative for Earth, the event will not be a big storm, but due to the very high CME speed #aurora watchers should be alert at high and mid-latitudes on late March 24.
Good luck today all #aurora chasers out there!

We are going to post updates under Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria for the forecast of this very fast #solarstorm . With the amazing Solar Orbiter magnetometer data, hopefully we can come up with a prediction of the geomagnetic effects.
This CME arrives at 🌍 tomorrow Sun March 24!

Quick look at the two 2024 March 23 CME source regions: assuming the rules for northern (left handed flux ropes) and southern hemisphere (right handed), we would get northward pointing fields Bz > 0 in both, but they may rotate and show Bz < 0 until they arrive at Earth.

Here is our SOHO view of the early 2024 March 23 halo CME. The bulk of the CME goes to the north, Solar Orbiter magnetometer is at 9° west at 0.39 AU. We keep watch of these in situ observations, but given the magnitude of the event it is obvious it will be observed at ESA's Solar Orbiter.

Another update: see how our magnetic index prediction (shaded green) fared with respect to the observed Dst so far (black line), still quite awesome.
We have overestimated the duration of the flux rope at 1 AU, but the important length and strength of the Bz < 0 matches well!

This is our summary prediction so far, based on Solar Orbiter magnetometer data and empirical modeling using CME physics - a moderate geomagnetic storm at its peak, starting late March 20, and going on for 2 nights. High latitude #aurora intensification should be possible!

We are posting our analysis of this #solarstorm in this thread below, and are updating it with more results throughout the day. We expect the shock and sheath to arrive late Wed March 20, and the magnetic core around noon Thu March 21.
Two possible #aurora nights are coming up!

Our team at the Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria is analyzing this event and we will come back soon with initial results.

The Austrian Science Fund FWF has a new ASTRA program for PostDocs 4-8 years after PhD, with grants of €500k to €1 million. There is an incentive to get women into permanent positions with an additional tenure package of €200k. #AdAstra 😆

Ian Urbina Shane Bauer .@KathrynSchulz delves into the nature of solar storms, and the concern some scientists have that a severe one could wreak havoc on technologies essential to our daily lives. nyer.cm/kqzbfkj

A #solarstorm erupting on Saturday 2024 Jan 20 is expected to arrive later today, Monday Jan 22. Initial speed estimates are 600-900 km/s. As of Monday Jan 22 8:50 UT, the halo CME on Jan 20 has not yet arrived at L1. Another storm erupting on the Sun on Jan 21 is more eastbound.

We have setup a new team account Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria where we will post updates on our research on the physics and forecasting of the solar wind and solar storms.
Real-time #aurora events in central Europe will also be made public and discussed via geosphere.at (in german).

As everyone is busy with abstracts for EGU 2024 in Vienna, please find here the list of sessions that we are involved with at the Austrian Space Weather Office Austrian Space Weather Office, GeoSphere Austria.
And you might follow our new account too 😉