Trump years were like, “Oh great, what did he say now?”

Biden years are like, “Oh frick, what potential apocalypse is happening now?”

If Trump can win Michigan in this environment then Trump can win Minnesota. We need more polls of Minnesota.

Suburban =/= white suburbanite.

Biden won all suburbites by 11 in 2020 54/43.

Siena is a D oversample (still Trump +1 with LVs), Marist more so; Cygnal and especially Fox (Trump +5) suggest improvements in suburbs. Trump also seems to have at least some improvement w/ urban.

Almost all the polls I'm seeing recently, state or national, have Trump winning independents and doing better with Rs than Biden does with Ds. Most show shifts to Trump. National & state polls alike seem to have shifted from 'good' R/D samples to D oversamples. No reason for that

In the Fox News Wisconsin poll, Trump improved over Biden with independents (+1-->+8) & Republicans (+84-->+90) since January.

But it remained TIED in the 2-way because the partisan lean went from R+4 to EVEN. They even had it R+6 in October of 2020! Does EVEN in WI make sense?

Actually suggests Wisconsin is the most 'pure' tossup state of all the swing states.

Upshot for Trump is he looks relatively well-liked and highly trusted in PA, MI, and GA from these Fox News polls, while Biden does not.

Trump leads with Independents 46/38 in the 2-way, wins GOP 94/4 and Dems 5/92. EVEN R/D split would yield a win.

Trump leads Indies 37/28 in 5-way; wins GOP 88/3 and Dems 3/83.

Again, more lines suggest Trump is stronger than the toplines in Pennsylvania.

Trump drops 2 pts in PA 2-way (now tied) and gains 2 in PA 5-way (now T+2).

Trump +16 on immigration, border, FP. Trump +12 on the economy. Biden +10 abortion. Both +1 on energy; tenuous result for Biden.

Biden -11 (44/55) JA.
Trump more favorable & net than Biden OR RFK.

Very good 2-way for Trump in Michigan. 49% share.
On 5-way, Trump holds 42% share while Biden finds life at 40% share. Meh.
Trump +4 with Indies & 94% with Rs/Biden 92% w/ Ds.
Biden -13 (43/56) JA, -16 favs
Trump + 11 economy, +15 immigration, +9 mental acuity, -8 Favs

Fox News Georgia Trump +6, Trump +7 [5-way].

Solid results. Good poll after the WSJ Georgia +1/+3 and Marist +4 polls. Bloomberg also had Trump +7/+7.

Second best poll in Georgia for Trump in March + April. Should put RCP average > 4.0.

Ok lol both lose shares as the sample increases cool.

Better result for Trump than the Politico Biden +2 poll.

Incredible lack of self-awareness for the NBD crowd to claim their candidate would have a better ground game than anyone else.

Also not behind in the polls, you dorks.

Anyway I actually warned you that we should've just made Trump the presumptive nominee after Ron dropped out.