Me on Iran and Israel’s latest tit-for-tat exchange, what it says about decision making in Tehran, and why the road to an eventual, and much more serious war, is is all but inevitable foreignaffairs.com/israel/iran-an…

For those interested in an assessment of Iran’s military capabilities, IISS News got you covered.

IISS Archive | Publication 2023: Chapter One assesses how Tehran’s armed forces and its equipment inventory may develop over the course of this decade and the wider regional ramifications of some possible outcomes.

➡ go.iiss.org/43ikd8g

Want to know what happens next in the Iran-Israel conflict? Highly recommend this podcast with Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم who explains the calculations of both sides, how this relates to Gaza and the risk of a regional war ft.com/content/18b009… via @ft

Last night's Israeli strike on Iran was not a big punch but a calibrated slap that told Iran its defences were weak and even a small Israeli operation can score points.

The Israelis avoided public triumphalism while demonstrating they have escalation dominance, the Iranians can…

After Tehran's unprecedented strike on Israeli territory, it was *inevitable* that Israel would hit Iran directly in response. Iranian leaders must have anticipated retaliation.

What happens next—esp in Washington—is crucial to avoiding a wider war.

foreignaffairs.com/israel/how-ame…

The Gulf countries' UAV-buying patterns reflect the region’s efforts to avoiding picking sides in geopolitical terms and underscore an ambition to become more self-reliant in military equipment.

#MilitaryBalance analysis by Albert Vidal:

➡ go.iiss.org/4d09Z25

At a time when Iran sees the value and limits of its regional influence strategy, here is our IISS News assessment of the complex relationships between Iran and its militia partners in the region.

My conversation with Gideon Rachman on escalation risks in the Middle East.

Thanks for hosting me, Gideon, and for the opportunity to develop further my analysis as featured in the FT a few days before.

Warning to listeners: there is no happy news in our discussion.

I suspect seeing Gazans at the beach today might have less to do with IDF troop deployments & more to do with (1) it being ~95 degrees in #Gaza today, (2) having little/no running water, (3) little/no meaningful shelter from the heat; & (4) little/no electricity to stay cool.

Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through a variety of complex relationships with regional partners.

IISS Archive | Publication 2019: 18-month long study based on field work, interviews and open source analysis.

Read more: go.iiss.org/45K8nED

'One more thing the day after Iran's attack has in common with the day after Oct. 7: both were preceded by a failure of Israel's intelligence community and leadership to assess the enemy's intentions.' And those same leaders are weighing what to do next. haaretz.com/israel-news/20…

A very good Jordanian perspective on what happened this weekend.

The US-Israeli rush to announce the birth of a new strategic alliance with Arab countries is deluded and insulting for countries that clearly see both Israel and Iran as the drivers of destabilisation.

The Saudis are unhappy about all the talk about a de facto regional alliance based on their role in intercepting Iranian projectiles 2 nights ago.

The Israelis talk about that moment as if months of Saudi/Arab statements and diplomacy were just irrelevant, as if the threat of…

I have a comment piece in the FT today looking at the dramatic events of the weekend in the Middle East and assessing prospects.

'The onus is now on Israel. Its air defences performed well last night, which has reassured its population and bought it time to calibrate its…

IISS Archive | Publication 2019: The IISS examines how Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through a variety of complex relationships with regional partners. The 18-month long study, is based on field work, interviews and open source analysis. go.iiss.org/45K8nED

Astute point. “Israel owes this success to ample warning from Iran and to the help of the US, UK, France, Jordan and other Arab states. The operation has exposed its security dependency on the very partners it has slighted in recent months” ft.com/content/d9275a…

A good assessment by Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم. 'The onus is now on Israel. For Benjamin Netanyahu, this is a net win... the concern now is that Israel's sense it has prevailed in this round may make it less rather than more risk averse.' ft.com/content/d9275a…

This thing is far from over. Let’s not be complacent.

I wrote a new piece for the FT about the recent escalation in the region.

BLUF:
“Relegated in all this are the Palestinians of Gaza. For all its performative support for them, Iran’s attack may well push the war there down the global agenda just as calls for an immediate…