Israel confirms use of ballistic missiles. Initial reports were likely incorrect; subsequent reports were correct.

They know it’s not true. They’re declaring victory and putting the onus of further escalation on Israel.

Here's my Foreign Policy op-ed and thread from earlier today on the Israel-Iran crisis. With Israel having now reportedly retaliated, I believe my advice for the U.S. is more salient than ever.

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr…

Peter Kropotkin (((James Acton)))

'united diplomatic response'

Yes and no. Unlike in sport, there’s no referee to decide who wins a military confrontation so both sides can (and frequently do) claim victory.

Continue to be cautious about claims of ballistic missile use.

(((James Acton))) Commentary or just the usual trolling?

But, if Israel isn't willing to temper its actions in return for a U.S. security commitment, it shouldn't get an unconditional commitment.

So the Biden administration--ideally Biden personally--should convey the following message, publicly and privately. (8/n)

I'm relieved the target doesn't appear to be the nuclear facility in Isfahan, though the intended message may be 'it could be next time.' Definite potential for further escalation.

To keep up-to-date with developments involving Iran (and Russia!) follow the multilingual Nicole!

Me in Foreign Policy on what the United States should do to try to prevent a regional war. Biden has leverage over Israel and he should use it.

Here's the BLUF:

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr… (1/n)

After last night's news... now more than ever! Me in Foreign Policy on why the United States shouldn't give Israel a blank check of a security guarantee.

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr…

Moral hazard in action.

To be sure, I think the United States did absolutely the right thing last night in helping to defend Israel. It likely saves lives both directly (by blunting the attack) and indirectly (by reducing escalation pressures). (4/n)

Plus, if Israel was planning on a military response, I’m skeptical it’s be appealing to the UNSC.

(((James Acton))) the response will be proportionate deaccelarate or no response or local allies

(((James Acton))) If you don’t think they’ll respond militarily you haven’t been paying attention.

Edward (((James Acton))) And this is the best outcome, and you take it and you thank them and not rubbing them on the nose.

(((James Acton))) Foreign Policy What’s the potential for this spreading beyond Israel and Iran?

Israel is a somewhat unusual case since there is no U.S.-Israel security treaty so the U.S. commitment does not have the democratic legitimacy conferred by Senate ratification--which matters, I think, when pledging American lives to defend an ally . (3/n)

(((James Acton))) Magnus K Do they really think Israel is not going to respond.