Here’s a little bit about what I’ve been doing with myself lately

A new institution is born!

The Budget Lab is off to a great start with analysis of the expiration of the TCJA and the child tax credit. Next level in going beyond just budget scoring to think about outcomes.

I can't wait for more from this all-star group.

.Jason Furman: “We’re probably in a much better place than many of us thought we’d be, in terms of a year ago. We’re in a much worse place than we were hoping three months ago.”

The economy still isn't behaving as anyone would expect:
washingtonpost.com/business/2024/…

The PPI is much less important than the CPI. But it came in cooler than expected taking a bit of the edge off yesterday's CPI print.

Core PCE inflation at a 6 and 12 month horizon will remain below 3%. But more recent numbers will be above a 3% pace. Thus the continued concern.

The residual seasonality/'Jan effect' story didn't make much sense this yr as it was a core services issue and not the usual core goods move, which is why there was some reason to worry. That said, Marc supercore def an upside surprise.