Parties will need to think about how much stability they need. This can be to deliver their agenda, survive votes of no confidence, reassure the markets, and also the security of the party leader's position. To secure this they will need to negotiate with other parties. 4/6

“Stop the boats”

Sunak’s pledge was to pass legislation to stop the boats, which he's done. But crossings remain high. There are no official forecasts, but in 2020-22 crossings varied across the year, peaking just when we'd expect an early autumn election campaign to begin...

“Cut waiting lists”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies have projected scenarios for the high profile elective waiting list. Their central scenario only shows sustained reductions from July 2024, and if doctors strikes continue then cutting the waiting lists may get even more difficult...

“Reduce debt”

Sunak didn’t give a time period for this pledge, but it’s likely he was referring to meeting his fiscal rules (debt falling as a share of GDP in 2027/28), which the OBR forecast suggests he will meet (even if 2027/28 is well beyond the current electoral cycle)

“Grow the economy”

The economy has grown and is forecast to continue growing towards an election, but slowly

The longer he waits to call election, the bigger the economy is expected to be (give or take)

“Halve inflation by the end of 2023”

Forecasts suggest he may meet this pledge – but it's looking very tight. Either way, inflation is forecast to continue falling into 2024...

The longer he waits to call the election, the lower inflation is likely to be at that time

In Jan, Sunak laid out his five pledges and asked the country to judge him on “the results we achieve”

At Institute for Government we've looked at different general election timings + where Sunak might be on his five pledges come the election...

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/next…

Crisp, fresh & sessionable. For those who love great beer and all it brings. But don’t want side effects to get in the way of their Days #beerfordoing

New Institute for Government guide for government on how to manage consultants.

How to ensure the work is good, you aren't using consultants for bad reasons, and the project doesn't turn ugly.

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…

Home Secretary Priti Patel has announced that the govt will accept the recommendations made in the Windrush review in full.

We spoke to Wendy Williams, who led the review, to discuss what went wrong and the lessons for UK govt – listen to the event here
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/wendy-w…

Have to say, if you want to catch up on Brexit you will not find a better, more digestible briefing than the 'Brexit: where next?' episode of the @Instituteforgov Live podcast

shows.acast.com/ifg-live-discu…

Great job Jill Rutter Maddy Thimont Jack Jess Sargeant Georgina Wright James Kane

Immigration between the referendum and Brexit.

My long essay for @ukandeu on the economics, policy and politics of migration to the UK over the last 4 years.

ukandeu.ac.uk/immigration-be…

#brexitcast for growinups.. here is Institute for Government update on the state of play - starring Maddy Thimont Jack as Laura, Georgina Wright as Katya James Kane as Chris and Jess Sargeant as Adam (sorry jess). Oh - and me instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/brexit-…

Interesting Institute for Government event happening this Friday (12-1pm) on 'Devolution and the future UK-EU Relationship'

Questions can be submitted in advance at the link below

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/devolut…

NEW: Institute for Government report finds insourcing services can improve quality, increase reliability & save money.

Gov must actively assess contracts and be prepared to intervene more often when outsourced services are failing.

Thread of key findings...

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/g…

The PM wants to agree a UK–EU trade deal by the end of July, but how ambitious is his timetable? And what will govt and business need to do to prepare? We'll discuss where next for Brexit on the IfG LIVE podcast

Tweet us your questions by 12pm tomorrow instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/brexit-…

Most advanced economies have rolled out major labour market support in response to Covid-19, but details differ quite a bit - wage subsidies versus unemp benefits, requiring staff to be furloughed or not. Our new explainer rounds up policies in 8 countries instituteforgovernment.org.uk/coronavirus-su…