In autumn 2023, Sunak chose to move further from the ground Johnson fought and won the 2019 election on. Unsurprisingly his party did worse in these elections than last year’s: ft.com/content/a35a63…

These results look like something of an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives

~ roughly half of council seats lost
~ 3rd behind Lib Dems in seats
~ 26 pt swing in Blackpool
~ Khan comfortable
~ Andy Street loses in West Midlands

Mitigation?

~ Lab PNS lead only 9
~…

Tbf they are mixed. Some are merely bad and some are absolutely terrible.

No we did not.

Lib Dems take Dorset off the Tories with 42 seats (+13) to 30 (-13) for the Cons sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

Good morning to all my psephologist friends.

A spectre is haunting Stockport

Local election confirms
- Cons unpopular; historic trough in GE year
- Anti-Cons voting appears efficient
- Labour faces more [varied] challenges in strong areas while advances in areas of weakness: GE2024 boost re FPTP geography. Future 2024-28 headaches re electoral coalition?

🗣️ Sir John Curtice: Results highlight deep trouble for Conservatives

👉 Instant analysis and reaction from our Senior Fellow.

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Plymouth votes Labour, 27k votes to 15k for the Conservatives.

Cons were defending 14 seats. Finished up winning just one.
sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britai…

As Police and Crime Commissioner I would simply commission more police and commission zero crime.

Because it's inevitable for somebody to compare raw council losses to last year (2023 had three times more seats up), here's some benchmarks relative to total number of contests:
-266 = losses are 10% of all seats
-350 = as bad as last year
-436 = worst for a govt since 1996

6 years since this Tory election leaflet, a design classic

Am already looking forward to 'this 20% swing against the Tories in a critical GE battleground is good for Sunak' takes.

V.interesting numbers from YouGov. Implying that Andy Street's personal premium above the party has balloned from 6% in 2021 to 18% today. Houchen's polling 51% in Teeside implies a similar personal vote vs 2021 of around c.30% above the party nationally

NEW 🗳️YouGov polling 🗳️

West Midlands Mayoral Election
Andy Street, Conservative41%
Richard Parker, Labour39%
Elaine Williams, Reform UK9%
Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green6%
Akhmed Yakoob, Independent3%
Sunny Virk, Liberal Democrat2%
YouGov say this makes it too close to call

Tees…

To what extent, and for what reasons, have the vote choices of persons with similar qualifications varied spatially at recent British general elections?

A new Political Geography study by Will Jennings, Gabi Durrant and I explains...

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

🗳️ Next Thursday voters head to the polls to elect their local councillors, mayors and Police & Crime Commissioners.

❓ But where do the parties stand, how might they fare, and what should we be looking out for?

Read Dr. Hannah Bunting & Michael Thrasher's essential previews now👇

Find this sentiment on Scottish indy complacent.

Clearly the mechanics of another indyref are extremely difficult short term.

But public polling on indy q is tight, young very supportive. Is it so hard to see SNP resurgent under an unpopular Starmer govt in Westminster?

We sure he’s going? I mean most of us consider our position on a Monday morning #Humza