#BREAKING IAEA says 'no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites'

“Even though Iran sought to change Israel’s risk calculus and deter it from further provocations, Tehran has likely put itself in a precarious position, waiting for an Israeli response that could escalate the conflict further.”

A piece Clara Sherwood and I wrote for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was published today. In it, we argue, 'social media posts by nongovernmental entities can help inform the public and shape the narrative during periods of nuclear escalation.'
(quick thread)
thebulletin.org/2024/04/how-no…

Declassified 1978 memo for the president on the vulnerability of DSP early warning satellites to Soviet lasers

Interesting claim.

Internal Israeli records 'outlined the range of responses from Iran that the Israeli government expected, among them small-scale attacks by proxies and small-scale attack from Iran. None predicted ferocity of Iranian response' From Ronen Bergman, NYT team nytimes.com/2024/04/17/wor…

Me in Foreign Policy on what the United States should do to try to prevent a regional war. Biden has leverage over Israel and he should use it.

Here's the BLUF:

foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr… (1/n)

Latest episode of Ankit Panda's members only show on nukes, this one featuring a great conversation about Germany and nuclear weapons with Ulrich Kühn
warontherocks.com/episode/thinki…

Ankit Panda (Ankit Panda) and Ulrich Kühn discuss how Germans are thinking about the role of nuclear deterrence as a tool for national security, alternative allies beyond the United States and NATO, and much more. ow.ly/1pTt30sBERk

I sat down with Ulrich Kühn recently to chat about Germany's shifting (and somewhat inchoate) debates on nuclear weapons in the twenty-first century. Listen here: warontherocks.com/episode/thinki…

Somehow, the Scud has returned

My latest, co-written w/ Tristan Anderson Volpe, in TWQ: We examine the magnitude of South Korea’s nuclear latency and leverage over the United States, and offer recommendations for how the US should think about managing allied proliferation risks twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/2024/04/…

AUKUS sub design deemed ‘mature’ as nations debate top technologies buff.ly/4aY3ElO

Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.

Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/

Lockheed gets the NGI contract reuters.com/business/aeros…

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