So. All the top #Brexit mandarins were out today answering Qs from Public Accounts Committee and they were confident on Jan 1 borders, including predicting a 'fourfold increase in capacity' for customs next year - per Alex Chisolm of Cab Office. Is that right? /1

parliamentlive.tv/event/index/8a…

Public Accounts Committee It would, on the face of it, appear to run contrary from a lot of the predictions from @RHARichardB Logistics UK and other trade groups about a shortage of customs intermediaries. The figure of needing 50,000 more has been around for a while - but not recognised by govt./2

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK So where is this 'fourfold increase' in capacity prediction coming from?

To be clear, that's not same as saying 4x number of agents, but a 4x increase in 'capacity' - so more computerisation, outsourcing etc - as Jim Harra of HMRC explained. /3

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK But even so, a 4x increase in capacity is a LOT, though in truth how you measure that capacity when a lot of customs work is in-house, one-man bands etc is interesting. Well one way is to ask industry...which is what HMRC did via Ipsos-MORI, per my sources.

So.../4

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK The number seems to be drawn from Para 2 of this: which says market anticipates doing 76m-119m declarations compared with current 29m-39m...ergo...there must be a 'fourfold' increase in capacity. Well maybe.../5