So. All the top #Brexit mandarins were out today answering Qs from Public Accounts Committee and they were confident on Jan 1 borders, including predicting a 'fourfold increase in capacity' for customs next year - per Alex Chisolm of Cab Office. Is that right? /1

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Public Accounts Committee It would, on the face of it, appear to run contrary from a lot of the predictions from @RHARichardB Logistics UK and other trade groups about a shortage of customs intermediaries. The figure of needing 50,000 more has been around for a while - but not recognised by govt./2

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK So where is this 'fourfold increase' in capacity prediction coming from?

To be clear, that's not same as saying 4x number of agents, but a 4x increase in 'capacity' - so more computerisation, outsourcing etc - as Jim Harra of HMRC explained. /3

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK But even so, a 4x increase in capacity is a LOT, though in truth how you measure that capacity when a lot of customs work is in-house, one-man bands etc is interesting. Well one way is to ask industry...which is what HMRC did via Ipsos-MORI, per my sources.

So.../4

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK The number seems to be drawn from Para 2 of this: which says market anticipates doing 76m-119m declarations compared with current 29m-39m...ergo...there must be a 'fourfold' increase in capacity. Well maybe.../5

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK But that is a helluva lot of weight to put on a Mori survey from June-Sept.

I had been wondering why Cabinet Office kept referring to new found 'confidence' it would have sufficient capacity, but this seems to be the basis. /6

Public Accounts Committee @RHARichardB Logistics UK The truth is, everyone is extrapolating, but we do know that a) customs intermediary salaries are rising b) poaching is rampant and that that market is very tight. (see my report here) /7

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