Wishing you all a very Happy Eid.

I recently gave a talk at the US Consulate about the upcoming '2024 National Elections,' which led to some fascinating discussions. I outlined three key phases in India to understand the support and opposition for the incumbents:

1. 'Phase of Electoral Optimism': The first 25

I remember a time when a student approached me with a rather thought-provoking question: “When and why does a dominant ruling party lose power?” It was a question that invited reflection, and I took a moment before responding.

I explained that ruling parties, regardless of

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in #Karnataka are shaping up to be fiercely contested. Despite Congress's strong footing, BJP is holding its ground with strategic vote consolidation. Current trends suggest BJP is well-positioned in 19 of 28 seats, potentially capturing 44% of the

The trends as of today in #Telangana are shaping up to be a Congress vs. BJP showdown in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. BRS's vote share could be a wildcard, affecting both parties.

However, Congress is poised to grab 41% of the votes and possibly 8 seats out of 17, while

आप सभी को रमज़ान मुबारक 🌴.

For a quarter of a century, I have been trying to understand the political behaviour of the people. Throughout this journey, I have meticulously studied and made projections for 23 elections, achieving remarkable accuracy in 20 of these instances. However, the political

Despite a weak organizational base, the BJP finds itself in a strong position in Odisha. The party could win as many as 13 Lok Sabha seats, with notable wins expected in Puri and Sambalpur. Its vote share is anticipated to rise to 40%.

#Odisha #2024Elections

BJP may potentially increase its vote share by up to 9% in #TamilNadu because of its grassroots efforts in 12 Lok Sabha Constituencies. But it is unlikely to win any seats without forming a local alliance, especially with the #AIADMK .

#LokSabhaElection2024
#2024Elections

From the Bench to the Ballot:

Calcutta High Court Judge #AbhijitGangopadhyay recently resigned to pursue a career in active politics, with indications suggesting he may join the BJP and possibly run in the Lok Sabha elections. The right of individuals, including judges, to

It’s better not to be grateful to any leader or political party at the cost of liberty and critical thinking.

#SundayMotivation

Today, the Speaker disqualified 6 Congress MLAs for cross-voting in #HimachalPradesh . Recently, the Speaker declined to disqualify Shinde’s group MLAs in #Maharashtra .

This illustrates that the Speaker’s decisions often align with the ruling party’s interests.

The popular approval rating for Congress is very high in #Telangana . With strategic candidate selection, effective grassroots management and well-planned rallies of Sonia Gandhi, Rahul and Priyanka, it could win up to 12 Lok Sabha seats.

#2024Elections #LokSabhaElection2024

Without a TMC-Congress coalition, the BJP could gain up to 24 Lok Sabha seats in #WestBengal , potentially securing over 42% of the vote.

TMC-Congress alliance might reduce BJP's seat to 15, yet its vote share will increase.

#LokSabhaElection2024
#2024Elections

On its own, BSP's electoral impact may have declined. But as part of an alliance, it becomes a valuable asset. It's difficult for the SP-Congress alliance to challenge the 'cultural capital' of BJP in UP without the support of the #BSP .

#UttarPradesh #LokSabhaElection2024

It wouldn't be surprising if the TDP-JSP-BJP alliance secures more than 20 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in #AndhraPradesh .

#LokSabhaElection2024

In many of Telangana's parliamentary constituencies, there is a gradual shift of anti-Congress votes in favor of the BJP.

#Telangana #LokSabhaElection2024

Congress is expected to perform well in 5 Lok Sabha constituencies in #UttarPradesh : —Amethi
—Amroha
—Kanpur
—Rae Bareli
—Saharanpur.

It will be challenging for the BJP to secure these constituencies.

#LokSabhaElection2024

Our Survey (January 10-25, 2024):

—43.3% are in favour of re-electing the #YSRCP government in 2024.

—41.5% are inclined towards a change in government.

The political landscape in #AndhraPradesh is shaping up to be highly competitive.

#AndhraPradesh Elections2024

Both BJP and Congress will improve their vote and seat shares in #2024Election . This will likely result in regional and smaller parties facing significant setbacks, as the political landscape shifts towards a more pronounced bipolar competition in 2024.