Back by popular demand, my husband Arnold on Minds Almost Meeting, talking to Robin Hanson and me about The Three Body Problem TV show (& books).

watch:
mindsalmostmeeting.com/episodes/3-bod…
or:
youtu.be/E26S_sBS6UI

It is tempting to know the world has problems, and also see people around you with character flaws, and then explain the former via the latter. That’s not entirely wrong, but wrong enough to greatly mislead many.

I thought we have a big fertility problem. Then I realized it is probably caused by an even bigger harder to fix problem.

Finally, I can reveal the big idea essay I've been working on for two months. Read it and weep.
quillette.com/2024/04/11/bew…

Join me in Boston tomorrow (Apr 11) at 7pm for a meetup at Richard & Susan Smith Campus Center. Somewhere near the middle. I'll be guy w/ green Bowser backpack.
Map at link.
google.com/maps/place/Ric…

'Recent research in sociology and demography has found increasing preferences for female children in high-income countries. … there is … parents explicitly want daughters when they have more direct choice over their reproduction' link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Almost as many say to punish impulsive the same, as say to punish them less. Almost none say to punish them more.

Should people be punished more or less for impulsive 'crimes of passion', compared to if the same harm had resulted from a deliberate plan long in the making?

Escaping eclipse traffic

Modest majority thinks freeway billboards warning of traffic deaths aren't worth their costs. Presumably that's comparing zero to current numbers, which suggests value of marginal billboard is more negative.

No one? Millions want cheaper housing in California. vanityfair.com/news/californi…

'Using data on 2.8 million matches from League of Legends, we find evidence supporting reference-dependent preferences, loss aversion, preferences for surprise & suspense, preferences for clumped surprise'
I did not know about clumped surprise.
nber.org/papers/w32295?…

'pandemic cash payments had no statistically significant, or clinically or economically meaningful, effects on infant health. … income transfers during pregnancy will have little effect on socioeconomic disparities in infant health.' nber.org/papers/w32310

'policies that reduce economic desperation reduce property crime but have little systematic relationship to violent crime. … most violent crimes, including murder, are not crimes of profit but rather crimes of passion' nber.org/papers/w32297

'experiments that relieved medical debt … for 83,401 people … 2018 [-] 2020 … no impact … on credit access, utilization, & financial distress … statistically significant reduction in payment of existing medical bills … no effect … on mental health' nber.org/papers/w32315?…

'proponents of the Second Demographic Transition theory were basically correct in their predictions: the model has been useful for understanding social changes since [it was proposed in] 1986, & alternative theories have not held up. In other words, virtually every society in the…

Robin Hanson His approach to Sorbonne was to write whatever he wanted, get censured for it and promise to correct it in the next edition of his book... which he then postponed indefinitely, or added the amendment to a much later volume.