I think my impromptu “The Perfect Balance Fallacy” lecture went down rather well.

Another fine walk from Church Stretton today. #hiking #Shropshire #OODSExeter

It’s the time of year. For the last 25 years friends from the 1970s ⁦University of Exeter⁩ Out of Doors Society have been meeting. This year we are in Church Stretton. Today we have been #hiking on the Long Mynd #Shropshire

#OTD 1922 RA Fisher publishes 'On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics'. He first read it to RSS Royal Statistical Society on 17 Nov 1921. It ushered in modern mathematical statistics & marked a seismic shift in statistics which until then lacked a unifying structure. 1/6

At Powys Castle today. #Wales #Cymru

“Hiawatha, who at college
Majored in applied statistics,
Consequently felt entitled
To instruct his fellow man
In any subject whatsoever”
Time for this classic again. columbia.edu/~to166/hiawath…

> a<-3
> b<-2
> c<-6
> d<-a/b*c
> d
[1] 9
> e<-a/(b*c)
> e
[1] 0.25

Don't forget your BODMAS and this applies also to the equations you put in your papers, you criminals.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_…
(As a concession, I have used that freeware stuff to show this.)

A step by step guide to analysing sets of n-of-1 trials using simple explanations. growkudos.com/publications/1… via @growkudos

'Many boast that they are in the top decile of statistical understanding but some are above that.' Sayings of Confuseus

'When it comes to discussing cross-over trials: much heat little light. This is due to the 'what a carry on effect'.' Sayings of Confuseus

LHS to look for a treatment effect (plus carry-over bias). RHS to look for the bias due to carry-over. Est [LCL,UCL] for both at 95%. How you interpret this then depends on what you assume given design and background knowledge. Caveat: I may have got data or labels wrong.

Leeds, Luton, Liverpool, Livingston, Lincoln City. It’s been a bad run of results for teams beginning with L. What’s going on?

A showery afternoon stroll by The Hermitage and up the Howe Dean #hiking #Edinburgh

I am not arguing for giving scientists the power of decision making but I wonder if the idiotic tax system & the incredibly stupid carers allowance rules in the UK would be possible if our rulers had even basic numeracy.

'Whenever I have anything to do with quality of life mine suffers.'
'Validation is a concept that has not been validated.'
Autoquotes.
'Anyone who hates QOL can't be all bad.' W C Fields (apocryphal)

'True wit is Nature to advantage dress'd,
What oft was thought, but ne’er so well express'd' Pope
'Why work to leave the work of others wasted,
When you progress by using what is pasted?' Doggerel of Confuseus
Who is a verse to plagiarism?

'You will find that many suggestions to improve drug development involve digital twerps.' Sayings of Confuseus

An interesting feature of Brunt's (1917) approach to what we would now call meta-analysis (MA) is that his weights are like fixed effects MA but his overall variance estimation is like random effects MA. jameslindlibrary.org/articles/an-ea…