People often say the inverted yield curve doesn't work anymore...

It’s now been 561 days since the 10-year/3-month yield curve first inverted in 2022. On average, recessions have started 589 days after the yield curve first inverts.

So we are closing in on the average but not…

Before you go writing off the inverted yield curve’s ability to predict recessions…

It’s been 561 days since the 10-year/3-month yield curve first inverted. On average, recessions have started 589 days after the yield curve first inverts.

We’re not even to the average yet.

Banking failures coming. A #recession is right around the corner. The economy is not doing well. Combine that with pending political instability of a contentious presidential election and you have a big mess.

Nobody has a crystal ball, but recessions happen every 6 to 10 years

So you want to tell me that after 12 years since the recession of 2008/09 we are going to see 3 technical recessions in a 4 year window?

The US economy actually LOST* 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023.

Over the last 30 years, such a big drop in employment has happened only in recessions.

*Business Employment Dynamics data of nearly 5 million firms, covering more than 100 million of US employment👇
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new Friday webinar! gold, silver, copper, global stocks, recessions, relative strength, dividends(?), semiconductors and a toasty breakout to look at as we digest markets this week #WhereDoWeStand $SPX

email [email protected] to subscribe...

90% of the time, we avoid recessions and stagflations

Yield curve uninversion (US10Y - US02Y) in action, against US recessions (green).

My bet this week (CPI) it will keep going up, keeping busy all the macro fellows on Youtube...

The assumption is one more leg up for stocks, and then 🔨.

The US labor market is only strong in the headlines.

In April, US full-time jobs DECLINED by 0.6 million while part-time jobs ROSE by 1.1M.

In the past, such a divergence has only happened during recessions.

Read more about March and February below👇
open.techwriters.info/globalmarketsi…

'90% of the time, we avoid recessions and stagflations' - BofA

yeah cuz recessions are so great

This MIT economist helps decide when recessions officially begin and end. Here's why those dates matter cnbc.com/2023/05/09/eco…

Bull Run or Bust? The LEI's Sobering Message for Investors

The market's been on fire, but a historically accurate indicator is flashing caution.

The Conference Board LEI, unbeaten in predicting recessions for 65 years, is down over 5% YoY.

Is a crash imminent? Stay tuned…

FACE ECONOMY TO END ALL RECESSIONS

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Stray Kids

Don't be surprised if the US Unemployment Rate (red line in charts) goes parabolic in the next few months...

In order (all YoY, grey bars are recessions):
1. Unemployment Rate
2. Permanent Job Losses
3. Job Openings
4. Truck Industry Employees

6/ Like past recessions, 2007's was also catalyzed by a 40% surge in oil prices

During a time of tight credit and an inverted yield curve

Historically, the inverted yield curve has reliably predicted recessions, making it a significant indicator for economists and investors.

🏠 Myth Buster: Did you know that in most recessions, home prices have actually risen, not fallen?
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“Recessions serve a vital economic cleansing function.”

-Elon Musk