Regardless of failure, its domestic and proxy propaganda will sell this as an attack loaded with success. A newish strategy Iran's proxies have used is to drip out the 'success' of lackluster attacks over weeks. Thus, the trickle of faux info makes the propaganda look more legit.

Mon entrevue avec Patrick Lagacé au 98.5 ce soir:

'Je pense qu'il y a une nuance importante qui se perd beaucoup dans les débats... Souvent, on ne fait pas la différence entre une tentative d'ingérence... et un succès en matière d'ingérence par la Chine.'
985fm.ca/audio/619049/l…

Iran trying, as it usually does, to strike a very delicate balance: it believes it has to respond (to signal strength domestically, to regional partners & to adversaries) while signalling it wants to avoid escalation and all-out war. Hard and very risky, but not impossible.

It’s real! It’s here!!!

Our second episode on the war in Gaza.

Cette fois-ci, Jennifer Welsh et moi-même interrogeons l’immense Eugene Rogan ⁦University of Oxford⁩ à propos des ramifications régionales.

Captivating, I daresay. podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/tou…

New from Justin Massie and me over at War on the Rocks:

'Don’t Count on Us: Canada’s Military Unreadiness'

warontherocks.com/2024/04/dont-c…

Given continued coverage today of how prime ministers consume intelligence (reading paper products vs receiving oral briefings), here is what @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social and I wrote in the book, comparing the 'voracious' reading of PM Harper to Trudeau's emphasis on more oral briefings:

Another element that comes up in the foreign interference commission and which @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social & I analyse in our book: how prime ministers consume intelligence in different ways (Chrétien: not much; Harper: read a lot; Trudeau: typically prefers oral briefings).

My new article via Sana’a Center discusses Saudi Arabia’s Eastward Turn: Shifting Relations with Yemeni Tribes. Moreover, it investigates the impact of regional competition in these areas on tribal society, considering its repercussions. sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-revi…

For the inaugural post in my column at the Liberties, I wrote about my hometown of Tehran & its unrepeatable, glorious intellectual & cultural life - or at least that of the bubble I came of age in, where I first became a flaneur, my enlightened Tehran

libertiesjournal.com/online-article…

Just over 1 year after my car accident (guy stole a car & crashed face-to-face into me at 100 km/h - could have been much worse: broken rib, injuries to knee & tailbone-to-hip ligaments, cuts & bruises), this week I graduated from physiotherapy + started playing hockey again...

INTRODUCING: The Yemen Review Quarterly.
Our long-running publication The Yemen Review has moved to a quarterly model. The January-March edition is out now, covering the past quarter's most important developments relating to #Yemen .
sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-revi…

Thomas Juneau provides his analysis of Iran's position in the Red Sea conflict, highlighting its careful balancing act between wanting to benefit from Houthi airstrikes while avoiding further escalation.
sanaacenter.org/the-yemen-revi…

The JCPOA was not perfect but many of us warned this would be the outcome:

'Six years after the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear accord, Tehran is rapidly accumulating enriched uranium... Experts fear a bomb could be a short dash away'
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

My book The President's Kill List is now available for pre-order with Edinburgh University Press. Use code NEW30 for 30% off. Tell your library too. edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-the-presi…

solid analysis, from Thomas Juneau for the Sana’a Center

Lots of misinterpretations/misunderstandings of how intelligence fits into broader decision-making processes in debates about the foreign interference inquiry in Canada.

One of them: it's not because something was written in a briefing note that everyone read and internalized it

Power and Politicking with my former boss, Vincent Rigby...