There is no such thing as a 'rules based international order' if the rules only apply to people and countries you don't like.

The contrast between US/UK and FR stmts on the ICC request for warrants for Netenyahu/Gallant + Sinwar/Deif/Hannyeh could not be starker.

Needless to say, France is coherent and not attacking the very system of international law it contributed to building, unlike the US/UK

This👇🏼

'This court is built for Africa and thugs like Putin was what one senior leader told me...'

EU likes to talk about defending the rules based order, 'battle of narratives' and 'battle of offers'.

Good luck trying to sell that to the 'global south' after stuff like this

This only underscores how the amalgamation of criticism of Israel and antisemitism has emptied the term “antisemitism”—a term with great historical weight in the post-Holocaust world—of all meaning. It’s been instrumentalized by political charlatans to detract from their crimes.

What if #Raisi is confirmed dead?

A few thoughts:

Under Article 131 of #Iran 's Constitution, First VP Mohammad Mokhber will temporarily assume Raisi's duties with the Supreme Leader's approval. A council must organize a new presidential election within 50 days/1

Ebrahim Raisi’s death would create a succession crisis in Iran. He and Mojtaba Khamenei are the only contenders to replace 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (Mojtaba’s father). In Iran's conspiratorial political culture few will believe Raisi’s death was accidental.

With no confirmation from Iran on further status of the helicopter crash carrying Iran’s President, it is far too early to speculate on big unknowns like Supreme Leader succession that was never an open conversation to begin with. 1/

With President Ebrahim Raisi widely believed to be a top choice for the next Supreme Leader, if there’s a chance he died in this helicopter incident, it means that the future of the Islamic Republic has also potentially been reshaped.

'Even with Israel’s precautionary measures, the threat of a refugee influx into Egypt has never been more real. To mitigate this scenario, Egypt is adopting what officials in Cairo call a ‘containment’ strategy,' writes Ahmed Aboudouh.

ow.ly/yScj50RFnP4

In our recent analysis, Ahmed Aboudouh argues that Chinese research on China-Middle East relations is increasingly focusing on risks of great power competition in the region, including competition with the U.S. Explore more analyses of Beijing’s MENA strategy here:

You have just caused a massive blow to the higher education sector - one of the sectors that make Britain Great, and Britain Global

If you want to know a think or two about Egypt’s position on the Rafah operation, and its predicament dealing with its consequences, read my latest piece here 👇🏽

Restraint over the Rafah operation shouldn’t be taken for granted. If Netanyahu orders a large-scale invasion, Egypt will have no choice but to respond, warns Ahmed Aboudouh. chathamhouse.org/2024/05/egypt-…

Egypt's restraint over the Rafah operation shouldn’t be taken for granted. If Netanyahu orders a large-scale invasion of Rafah, #Egypt may see no option but to move on from symbolism and rhetoric to real action, writes Ahmed Aboudouh.

Read in full ⬇️
ow.ly/yScj50RFnP4

Israel’s impending military operation in Rafah has created two serious threats for Egypt’s government, warns Ahmed Aboudouh (@CH_MENAP).
chathamhouse.org/2024/05/egypt-…

Check out my latest for Chatham House Chatham House MENA where I argue that Egypt’s frustration since the beginning of the war didn’t go beyond symbolism and rhetoric. But its restraint on Israel’s sabre rattling in Rafah shouldn’t be taken for granted.
chathamhouse.org/2024/05/egypt-…

Senator Lindsey Graham is encouraging Israel to do whatever it takes in Gaza while using the Hiroshima analogy. Does this mean he would be ok with Israel dropping a nuclear bomb on the Palestinians there?

Israel’s operation in Philadelphi corridor would never have happened without close coordination with the Egyptians. Frustration was never about this. It has always been (and continues to be) about the worsening humanitarian situation and possible exodus of refugees into Sinai.

I told Paul Iddon that bilateral relations between the UAE and China's air forces as superficial and symbolic. Both sides will need a long time to build strategic depth in their military partnership. In addition to smart comments from Sebastien Roblin
businessinsider.com/uae-forges-chi…