Oliver Geden ECHR CEDH We need to face the music & stop talking about “net zero by 2050 & 1.5°C” - especially for wealthy nations (ie. ignoring CBDR).
IPCC 50% ≤1.5°C budget is ~330GtCO2, & Lamboll et al <200GtCO2, ie. 5-8yrs of current emissions!
Zero CO2 by 2035-40, earlier for Switzerland/UK/etc.

Dr Steve Westlake Sadly your/colleagues key work (& that on fairness/equity), remain taboo in the hi-level climate realm. Absent from the IPCC summary for policymakers, ~ignored by Climate Change Committee & ridiculed by many journalists & political ‘elites’. Coincidentally, mostly of whom are hi-emitters.

Kevin Anderson John Lindberg Astanine Nikolas Also, what is the basis of your definition of 'human nature'? E.g. the human nature that underpins societies that have strived to live in balance with nature, or the ones that make decisions based on the wellbeing of seven generations into the future?

Matthew Todd 🌏🔥 More people could do with listening to Prof Kevin Anderson. Stark interview about how close we are to the precipice. Net zero is a scam, but not in the way the deniers think...

youtube.com/watch?v=tVFSJI…

Kevin Anderson Dr Steve Westlake Yes good even if a case of statin' the bleedin obvious. More interesting perhaps is WHY don't these people lead by example? Perhaps because they still just don't really get it because the IPCC and most scientists still just aren't really telling them? 🤔

Jackson Damian Kevin Anderson Leaders (politicians) give many reasons for not leading by example: it will be dismissed as virtue signalling, media/rivals/constituents won't like it, it opens them up to further scrutiny, it's wrong to focus on individuals, if done it should be done quietly. (paper in review)

First major IPCC report:1990
Rio Earth Summit establishing the UNFCCC: 1992
The Kyoto protocol:1997
Paris: 2015
Glasgow: 2021
So why haven't we bent the emissions curve in 30 years?
We conclude power concentrated in 'elites' is a major obstacle to change annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.11…

Kevin Anderson Will get a gander at this later/tomorrow. What I don't understand is how/why more climate scientists, and people involved in environmental policy more generally, don't bring this kind of thing up more? So much techno-hopium and ignorance of the cold hard numeric reality.

Andy Boenau FuckCars Typical of much of UK cycling infrastructure, a bit of faded paint alongside a busy road - basically a dumping ground for glass & other road debris, sunken drain covers & parked cars - but it does permit a box to be ticked & a false statement be made by some hi-up policy types.

I wonder what makes people avoid this bike lane.

Dr Steve Westlake makes an important and evidenced-based point that sadly many hi-emitters are simply unprepared to accept - and this includes a fair number of my academic colleagues.

Kevin Anderson Dr Steve Westlake Indeed, climate hypocrisy seriously damages climate action. Imagine how ineffective the 18th-19th century Abolitionist movement would have been if its supporters owned enslaved people & hadn't boycotted slave products? #ClimateScientistsArentLying

Happy to share a preprint of some of my PhD work🚨

with Christina Demski and Prof. Nick Pidgeon

Key findings: politicians and celebs who lead by example with low-carbon behaviours increase others' willingness to act and raise trust/credibility/popularity papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
🧵

💧simon holmes à court International Energy Agency Electricity is typically just 20-30% of final energy consumption, the rest being fossil fuels. The IEA 50% 1.5 scenario embeds CO2 emissions >1/3 higher than IPCC 50% 1.5°C budget, & ~2x the Lamboll budget. The timeframe for 1.5 (& 2°C) is far tighter than our scenarios suggest.

Les W Kuzyk But its shape is in large part a product of our choices & here timeframes matter. Current CO2 will use up the carbon budget for a 50% chance ≤ 1.5°C in 5-8 years, & 15-18 years for an 83% chance ≥ 2°C. This is basically scammed with 100s bilions tonnes of CDR in most scenarios.

Groutie10 Kevin Anderson Andy #Rejoin #Climatejustice #NHS We are in a climate AND ecological emergency with the former representing (a very important) 1 of 6 planetary boundaries currently in overshoot. For me, the prime purpose for tree planting has to be ecological with climate a secondary, and hopefully, bonus benefit.

Kevin Anderson Groutie10 Andy #Rejoin #Climatejustice #NHS we already know this is what they'll do, because since their massive profiteering from Putin's war against Ukraine, they used the increase in profit to backtrack on existing absolute & relative decarbonisation commitments. The simple truth is that they'll just take what they can.

Kevin Anderson Groutie10 Andy #Rejoin #Climatejustice #NHS I think it would be possible if we could plant lots of trees (but it does matter where), but force fossil fuel phase out as if we were planting none. Unfortunately, we don't have the power to force that on the fossil fuel industry, ergo: greenwash. It's the same with CDR.. 1/

Thanks for the heads-up.

Interesting short explainer on trees & warming.

I suggest a cautionary caveat: where carbon absorbed in trees makes it into a bean-counters spreadsheet, any absorption benefit risks being lost as it’s used as an excuse to slow down the phaseout of fossil fuel production/use.