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Webinar On-Demand: A Long Winter is Coming for Global Energy Markets
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Help may be on the way from an unlikely source: China. In recent months, China has been loosening export controls on diesel. Its exports rose from 200,000 b/d in August to 430,000 b/d in September, and the country has the capacity to sell even more. #OOTT
nytimes.com/2022/11/10/bus…

Webinar: A Long Winter is Coming for the Global Energy Market. Register today: bit.ly/3Ew8U2M

What comes next is more important than last week's decision. #OOTT #OPEC
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A recovery in jet fuel is boosting #Europe an oil demand this summer, but the outlook is darkening for other products. Of the 600 kbd in demand growth this year, 450 kbd is in jet fuel. Growth slows to a mere 30 kbd by 2023. #OOTT #Oil #Europe

Africa’s large product deficit puts the region at risk for fuel shortages given global tight supplies. While new refinery capacity is scheduled to come online in Nigeria in 2023, others are looking to restart small idled domestic refineries. As much as 650 kbd could be restarted.

WEBINAR — WHAT’S UP WITH PRICES AT THE PUMP? Join ESAI Energy C.E.O. Sarah Emerson and the expert panel on May 26th as they discuss what’s driving prices at the pump and what we can expect next. Register here bakerinstitute.org/events/2315/ #gasprices #esai #fuelprice #bakerinstitute

In the current situation, ESAI Energy expects refiners with access to the Druzhba pipeline and #European refineries with #Russian ownership to be less vulnerable to disruptions. #OOTT #RussiaUkraine #oilandgas

Returning to the #JCPOA has gained urgency, but also complications. Ironically the higher the #oilprice goes the faster #Iran can make money if sanctions are lifted, and thus the more Iran can stall for leverage. Both sides are close but not quite there.
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European crude importers are not equally dependent on Russian crude #OOTT #UkraineWar

US imports less than 200kbd of crude oil. Bigger import is VGO. US has refining capacity to manage VGO loss. The embargo is significant only if Europe joins #OOTT #UkraineWar

ESAI Energy's Sarah Emerson talked to Robinson Meyer from The Atlantic about the theories for why gas prices are so high. Trust us when we say that it's worth the read for our clients and others interested in gas prices! #OOTT #oilandgas #gasprices
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…

Nigeria struggles to match oil production to its OPEC+ quota due to its weak infrastructure and low investment. Increasing security concerns also play a role. Economic and political issues will hold #crude production under 1.5 m b/d in '22 after averaging 1.8 m b/d in '19. #OOTT

Refiners continue to announce projects to produce #renewablefuels . Investment in additional capacity continues to expand in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Various policy-driven premiums and #CarbonPricing mechanisms create incentives to shift to non-traditional feedstock. #OOTT

In spite of SPR releases, OPEC+ decided to stick to the 400,000 b/d monthly increase in #Crude production for January. With African #OPEC members unable to meet their targets, the risk of oversupply is minimized. On balance, this pushes the first half surplus to 700,000 b/d. #OOTT

Check out this quick read on the impact of the natural gas crunch on oil demand. #OOTT #oilandgasindustry
Market Alert: Natural Gas Heats Up Oil Demand esaienergy.com/post/market-al…

Happy to be quoted along with old friend ⁦Bob McNally⁩ and CSIS’s ⁦Ben Cahill⁩ #OOTT #SPR #RIN spglobal.com/platts/en/mark…

Recent Supreme Court ruling on small refinery exemptions has the potential to undermine D6 RINs and RVO prices. High feedstock prices and fewer approvals under the current administration will limit the near term impact on prices and prevent a return to 2019 lows.

However, COVID’s resurgence remains a risk in developing regions, as seen by the devastating outbreak in India. Unlike China, demand in India will not fully recover until 2022. 2/2

The recovery in global fuel demand has been chaotic but will resume into 2022 as vaccinations accelerate and the global economy strengthens. Driven by the recovery in transport fuels, global oil demand could reach pre-pandemic levels by 2022. 1/2