Consumers are maximizers.

This is crazy. Forbearance programs causing underwater loans

Tl;dr: they went into mortgage forbearance and due to how it was structured, they now owe MORE on the house than the original loan

So, equity has deteriorated now that they're trying to sell... reddit.com/r/RealEstate/c…

Just a reminder:

Indeed Job Postings is like JOLTS Job openings, only 2 months earlier.

'Monetary policy alone is not sufficient.'

Hard to believe the original exchange between Powell and Kennedy was two years ago considering where we are today.

Money left over

The pattern emerging makes it evident US income tax refund season gave spending that last boost. Now what?

Mastercard lowered its revenue-growth forecast for 2024 and showed a slowdown in volume growth for April compared to stronger growth in the first quarter.

MarketWatch

UP TODAY at 11 AM ET!!

While you are waiting on the Fed rate decision
please join me to talk FOMC and so so much more with this INCREDIBLE panel:

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Neely Tamminga Neely and Mike Green…

UP TOMORROW (Wednesday) at 11 AM ET!!

I have the pleasure of speaking with the most AMAZING panel:

Andy Constan Andy Constan Gary Brode Gary Brode Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar
Neely Tamminga Neely and Mike Green
Michael Green

Hope you can join us ..we will talk FOMC…

“Healthy backlog” or “delayed decision-making?”

When rate cut expectations compressed dramatically in 90 days, might we expect delayed decision-making?

Consumers are maximizers.

Gulp.

CRFB.org are not prone to hyperbole.

UP THIS WEDNESDAY at 11 AM ET!!
I was almost going to skip this week but I gathered an amazing lineup!

Andy Constan Andy Constan, Gary Brode Gary Brode, Peter Boockvar Peter Boockvar
Neely Tamminga Neely and Mike Green Michael Green

Hope you can join us ..we will talk…

Its tough to make a quantitatively driven case that the interest income from higher rates has been an important driver of recent US GDP growth.

Since rates meaningfully started rising in 2022, HH interest income is up about 275bln while overall GDP is up 3.6tln:

Seeking the wisdom of curious nerds...

We're +34% in recipients of student loans vs. Q4'19, yet tracking -10% in deposits (payments) at the Dept of Ed for the same time period.

What am I missing?
How bad will delinquencies be once they're reported!?

How… how… did I land a spot on this lineup?!

Honored to be included, Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )!

Among my top concerns for 2024 (and was for 2023):

SMB data is like a water stain that shows up on a first-floor ceiling only to find the source of the issue is a leaky faucet on the third-floor bathroom that no one remembers exists.

You're too late; the damage is done.

Why we're tracking higher on a net basis than '23 for tax refunds (less taxes owed).
1. Should be lower b/c CA taxes owed were paid on a deferred due date basis in Oct/Nov '23.
2. Some of the tax withholdings 'strength' observed in '23 was to prevent underwithholding, not jobs.

Been a fan of Arthur Brooks for some time now.

The Pursuit is a solid documentary to show in econ class and engage in critical thinking conversations.

Nerds. Super curious. You're about to lose access to your files and you can only save three. What are they?

Mine (all Excel... of course) ⬇️

1. Treasury/IRS data file
2. Retail sales data file
3. Jobless claims data file

There ain’t no party like a PiQ party… love when I get a chance to get the band back together with Lilly 💙

(Did you know that we hosted the first ever social audio financial news show together back in the CH days?!)