Piling on here, but it really highlights the importance of thinking about the driver of commodity prices

Pretty exceptional move up in commodity prices with shipping costs plummeting, especially considering the canal problems

Dollar Wrecking Ball - Both side of the smile this week

I’m keen to the conspiracy theory here on evil axis bad intentions w/ commods

Would suggest you spend time reading up on very smart work out of both Bob Elliott and Santiago Capital on recent moves in commods/$

Credit not as extreme as SPX, but it too showing signs of distribution for the first time in quite some time.

Set up is in place, would expect distribution from disciplined participants to continue. This does not mean they are getting short, but would expect them to be paring longs based on the chart set up.

Things in motion stay in motion

What will put a halt to the current inflation? In many ways, the debate over CPI vs PPI/PCE this month is a classic example.

Let’s remember, hypothesis is that inflation is returning to at or near 2%. Can’t reject the null hypothesis right now

No offense to Nick Timiraos because I appreciate his honest engagement here

Who would be your Twinfit all star presser members. I would start with:

George Robertson
Jack Farley
Andy Constan
Bob Elliott
Jim Bianco
Danny Dayan
Alf

I am missing many, go

SEP 24 3M SOFR Option Implied Fed Probabilities through the November Fed meeting.

JUN 24 3M SOFR Option Implied Fed Probabilities through the July meeting

JUN 2024 EURIBOR Option Implied ECB Probabilities through the JULY ECB meeting, post today’s meeting

1 cut still the leader, but lost a little bit of ground both yesterday and today.

$NVDA - Give them some credit, they are going to try. And, what if this was just what was needed to cycle the MACD lower out of overbought territory? Interesting ahead of 30yr auction

This is the area to sell, or to run for the hills.

We always questioned whether or not The Fed was infallible. In the past it was always a mystery.

The only thing solved with all their talk……it proves they are not.

We are left confused (and often times mad) rather than in awe.

Amazing to me that people are just coming around to this (Craig not included, he has been ahead of this).

This write up is exactly what we will look back at and ask, “What in the world were they thinking, t was so obvious?”

Really becoming a problem. Reminds me of the days when the green screen (Telerate box) was quite important.

Best to let the market to react to the data (just like The Fed), and only speak when you need to course correct the market because it ventured too far away from yours

Something to keep in mind.

Yesterday’s actual moves will only start to filter through people’s VAR today. Heard from one smart person that they saw yesterday’s move in TY as 3 SD move relative to VAR implied charge.

Contemplate that in the context of 30yr auction/basis trade

DEC25 up 28.5bps on the day

DEC25 3M SOFR Option Implied Fed Probabilities

25% chance that we are at or above current Fed Funds levels more than 18 months out from now

Interesting, although take it for what it is worth given low volumes:

Mode = rate hikes
4 cuts next at 10%

SFRU4 now at 5.13%, up 20.5bps on the day

SEP 3M SOFR Option Implied Fed Probabilities through November FOMC

H4L or EVHL up to 58% from 30% yesterday
1 cut down to 17% from 26%
2 cuts down to 14% from 25%
3 or more cuts down to around 10%

SFRM4 now at 5.28%, up 11.5bps on the day

JUN24, 3M SOFR Option Implied Fed Probabilities through July FOMC

Harley discernible at first, but some very large moves today

H4L or EH4L moves from 49% to 83% just today
1 cut down from 43% to 14%
2 cuts bye bye, down from 7%

Not going to lie, looking forward to how these Option Implied Fed Probabilities close out today…….