With an expected continuation of Saudi/OPEC voluntary cuts into 2H'24, we see global oil inventories falling to record low levels by YE'24, supportive of $90 Brent (zero political risk premium).

A 6 minute interview yesterday that covered the now non-existent geopolitical risk premium (and why that is a good thing), how 'return of capital' plans should evolve over time, and the likely outcome of the upcoming OPEC meeting: bnnbloomberg.ca/video/outlook-…

'Energy Fantasies' are temporary...'Energy Realities' are enduring.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Energy remains an out-of-favour, non-consensus, contrarian investment. As a contrarian investor myself, I love it...the best opportunities are where no one else is looking.

To have a sector that is generating and returning the most amount of free cashflow in its history while being by far the top performing subsector for 4 years...and STILL be out of favour...is perplexing. Such poor sentiment means we are likely still early days.

'Speak softly and carry a big stick'...there is a reason why HRH earns the respect of the energy community.

Rystad's view on the oil price impact of whatever OPEC+ chooses to do. My guess? Faltering US consumer + more hawkish Fed = reason to remain 'preemptive, proactive, precautionary' and wait for the market to PULL the barrels from them vs. PUSHING them onto the market. As such, we…

Given a 'higher for longer' Fed stance on rates this year, I think the words 'preemptive, proactive, precautionary' are key as we head into the June OPEC+ meeting and indicative of the likely outcome.

Latest interview with Eric Nuttall on: Windfall Taxes, $50 Billion in Revenues & Why A.I. Will Require More Canadian Energy podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/171… #EFT

It is baffling to me that oil stocks remain a contrarian call and sentiment, as measured by fund flows, remains bearish. Oil demand is exceeding expectations, US supply growth is plummeting, global oil inventories are near all-time seasonal lows and 'days of supply' to reach…

We remain bullish.™️

Nature is healing.

Another Market Call in the books with the focus on the value in long-dated inventory, why we have become medium/long-term bullish on natural gas, and where we continue to find opportunities...we remain bullish!
bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/fu…

There is no energy transition. You cannot transition to something when there is neither a universally economic nor technically feasible alternative. Energy demand has NEVER fallen, and the world needs an 'all of the above' answer. To say otherwise in my opinion is energy…

Energy fantasies vs. energy realities...an excellent reminder from OPEC: energyintel.com/0000018f-05e2-…

While net length in oil is low by historical standards, it is up sharply from the lows making oil a little more prone to CTA positioning and erratic, non fundamentally-based moves. Ignore headlines trying to explain sharp 1 day declines with 'weak demand' as they are unfounded.

I’m an optimist, so the upside I can find in rising taxes and further falling productivity/competitiveness is a likely weaker Canadian currency…a huge benefit for Canadian energy companies who now get a 38% revenue uplift vs. their US peers. Sunny ways!

Few called it. Helima did from the beginning.