Compact of Free Association amendments (COFA) passed in Republic of Marshall Islands (27 Yes - 0 No). That means U.S., Palau, Federated States of Micronesia and Marshalls all passed. It's done.

Great, patient work from all concerned.

Now to implementation...

Important and influential work by Eyck Freymann and Centre for Geopolitics's Hugo Bromley!

It's high time for everyone to assess the costs and benefits of potential blockade strategies properly...

Wild to me that the PRC has just kind of soft annexed a chunk of Bhutan and it is passing not only unapposed but basically unremarked upon

I know we're still debating the data, but this trend is remarkable if you zoom out.

The FTC is investigating OpenAI and the document outlining their questions is fascinating.

🧵Some highlights:

Kurt Campbell: “If you ask me what is the most important bilateral relationship for the United States going forward? I believe India is that country. What India offers is deeply significant in terms of technology, the diaspora, educational opportunities, and its desire to play a

Zhejiang leaked (then deleted, confirmed by Caixin) Cremated Bodies for 2023 Q1: 171k, 67k above trend.
Zhejiang's cremation rate is ~100% and its elderly pop is 4.5% of China's total.
This would give China's estimated COVID excess death 1.5m+. Note Zhejiang is the richest area.

China is not the only Asian state that wants a role in the changing Arctic.

But only China has set the goal of putting itself at the center of an alternative regional order.

My latest, with Calvin Heng

bit.ly/447n5pg

🚨Policy Brief: Calvin Heng & Eyck Freymann review the key differences in how Asian states are approaching the Arctic through a survey of their strategic documents, public statements, and diplomatic and commercial activities.

Key takeaways 🧵⬇️

What will the Arctic look like in 2050? Stable but bifurcated, or racked by climate change and conflict? Managed competition, or a resource rush?

Eyck Freymann shares some thoughts on what the US gov’t can do now to prepare: bit.ly/3PDhDX4

Why is the U.S. suddenly reaching out to China? Eyck Freymann on the motivations and challenges for cooling things down in Washington and Beijing: thesgnl.com/2023/06/us-chi… #China #Beijing

Article 1 of China's constitution.

'The People's Republic of China is a socialist state under the people's democratic dictatorship'

I'm so indignant at the denials of the Tiananmen massacre I witnessed exactly 34 years ago--and at having my reporting twisted and cited by the deniers--that I wrote this Facebook post with links to pieces I wrote at the time. Grrrrr. facebook.com/kristof/posts/…

🧵[1/11] In our new Peterson Institute paper (forthcoming, summer JEP), Catherine Wolfram and I consider the frictions created by asymmetric climate change policies. What happens when some countries subsidize, and others impose costs?piie.com/publications/w…

The China-Europe relationship is quietly collapsing, thanks to structural economic factors, skillful American diplomacy, and Chinese diplomatic incompetence.

This is a big strategic opportunity for the U.S., as elettra_a and I explain in a new essay.

thewirechina.com/2023/05/28/the…

The staging of the welcoming of leaders at China-Central-Asia summit is simply bizarre for a supposedly communist country, invoking palace attire and accessories of Chinese emperors

One way to think about China’s international relations is think about them as a supply chain—upstream supplies of raw materials and intermediate inputs to produce final outputs. China is moving closer to the upstream side of that supply chain—Russia, Saudi Arabia, Africa etc.,

Strongly suspect that if we had the current data, China's net flows to Africa have turned negative (repayments exceed new loans).

Most China ExIm loans have a 5y grace on principal so the 16 loan spike is now reversing

1/

In light of the Stephen Jen analysis drawing attention to (and I think overstating) the USD's long-term slide in global reserves since ~2000, I suggest one potential factor behind reserve diversification: improvements in reserve adequacy.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

IMF/WB spring meetings in one chart.

China stopped being a source of net financing to the developing world in 2019. Many debt restructurings ahead.

#Zambia is stuck in the middle.