I'm thrilled to join Jana Sillmann s group Universität Hamburg in May! Looking forward to many new and exciting projects and collaborations 🥳

Huge thanks to Aiko Voigt and the whole team Universität Wien for a great time and all the things I could learn! Very sad to leave 🫶

Helping to educate a new generation of climate researchers and #HPC users, we provided students at Universität Wien access to the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC) - Austria's flagship #supercomputer . It was a pleasure to collaborate with you Lukas Brunner [email protected] Blaž Gasparini & Daria Tatsii! eurocc-austria.at/projekte/klima…

Finally, we also apply all five methods and the multi-method to real observations and use them to constrain projections of European temperature changes between 1995-2014 and 2041-2060 👇👇

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In winter semester 2023 students at Universität Wien received access to the VSC #supercomputer to run the global climate model ICON. It was a pleasure to collaborate with the team of the modeling and #dataanalysis course & EuroCC Austria again!
Lukas Brunner [email protected]
vsc.ac.at/news/2024/news…

The idea is simple: provide each participating group with historical CMIP6 model runs, serving as pseudo-observations used to constrain CMIP5 projections.

The constrained distributions are then compared against the withheld 'truths' in the future.

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Main takeaway: for summer temperature changes the methods are very consistent even though they base their constraints on quite diverse information.

Combining them into a multi-method constraint that can draw on all available information also shows quite some promise.

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It was quite an effort to achieve a consistent comparison of five very different constraining methods using 125 (!!) pseudo-observational datasets.

Huge thanks to Chris O'Reilly Christopher O'Reilly for leading this!!🙏

See figure to get an idea of the amount of data involved.

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For precipitation and in winter method skill is much more of a mixed bag with only few consistent skill improvements compared to the unconstrained case.

Constraining precipitation on a regional scale should therefore be treated with some caution. 👉rdcu.be/dFXv5

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(How) can we show the skill of constraining future projections?

Model-as-truth tests have been used in the past but only for individual methods.

We develop an extensive & consistent testing framework and apply it to five (!) constraining methods.

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doi.org/10.1038/s41612…

Congratulations, Lukas Brunner [email protected]! 🎉

Lukas Brunner [email protected] Nature Communications Thanks, this was helpful.

(Although I still didn't fully understand the root cause of the running bias, in particular why the seasonal cycle causes it. I have thought exactly as you write in the paper, that the warmer and colder values in the window cancel each other out.)

𝓛𝓮𝓽𝓲𝓬𝓲𝓪 🇾🇪 MATJEKANE MASHIGO ( MOJAPELO) ᴅᴏɴᴀᴛ 🐩 nah 🗼 @slerfyy K某人 أبو عبدالله Shashank Raghumudri Quip Chīsana ryū 𝑝𝑒𝑑𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑟𝑢𝑧 ✞ JorgeH117 Dan Filippo Molinini 🌴 Keep waiting 🌊 🌙 333 Inside Out 🌙💚 Brad Shaler Charlee Bradbury Miguel Ángel Marianne Ishøi Mose Zed taniadrussell lLAWl Mothewestaf Anthony Hennen Ale Robles doğa Manish Kaushik AlX3087 Omar L Jr. 👑 ⭐⭐⭐ Yuki B Nitin Satya 🇮🇳 Lisa Jarvis GGA 💙🇺🇲💙 @aasslam30 kat🍉 A Vivian 🔴⚫ Lukas Brunner [email protected] گلاکن Pet Muro Steve Wisbey OAM

University of Vienna STEM Klimaschutzministerium Prof. Katharine Hayhoe Universität Wien Lukas Brunner [email protected] Heidi Weinhäupl Heidi 🫶🏽 Heidi Weinhäupl

we can still (easily) distinguish random climate model output fields from observed climate fields using #MachineLearning . But it gets increasingly harder for high-resolution simulations - the Turing test for climate models?
Cool new paper by Lukas Brunner [email protected]

Thanks to the SCAN-Unit for inviting me for a talk Universität Wien 😊 Great catching up with Kim Doell Dr. Laura M. König Lukas Brunner [email protected] Environmental Psychology Vienna Sabine Pahl 🤗

Lukas Brunner [email protected] Gratuliere! 🥳

Sebastian Sippel Environmental Data Science Lukas Brunner [email protected] Save to Notion  #thread

Leseempfehlung:

Hier eine tolle Zusammenfassung des Besuchs von Prof. Katharine Hayhoe von Lukas Brunner [email protected] an der Universität Wien.
Danke.
Inklusive Link zum Nachsehen!

imgw.univie.ac.at/artikel-news/k…

Read Lukas Brunner [email protected]'s report on last week's keynote by
Prof. Katharine Hayhoe. Katharine Hayhoe, one of the best-known physical #climate scientists and professor at Texas Tech University, focusses on climate #anxiety and asked how to get from worried to activated. Read more: ⤵
imgw.univie.ac.at/en/news-events…

The frequency of heat days has been systematically underestimated - scientists at Universität Wien have uncovered an error in an established calculation method 🌏 Study by VSC users Lukas Brunner [email protected] and Aiko Voigt published in Nature Communications medienportal.univie.ac.at/en/media/recen…