A major government credit program in Brazil resulted in higher borrowing by public sector employees with low financial literacy at the expense of higher volatility and lower average consumption, from Gabriel Garber, @atifrmian, Jacopo Ponticelli, and Amir Sufi nber.org/papers/w29386

Falling interest rates disproportionately benefit industry leaders, especially when rates are already low, from Thomas Kroen, Ernest Liu, @atifrmian, and Amir Sufi nber.org/papers/w29368

Are very low interest rates market neutral?

Or do low rates tend to tilt the scale in favor of market leaders, thus reducing competition?

We have a new empirical paper out that suggests falling rates help the rise of superstars

A short thread ...

nber.org/papers/w29368?…

New paper by Ernest Liu Atif Mian Amir Sufi & Tom Kroen shows that lower rates benefit industry leaders; more so as r➡️0. Links low r and high concentration as in earlier theory paper: scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…

Falling Rates and Rising Superstars nber.org/papers/w29368#…

Can’t even explain yet to my non-Econ friends just what a revolutionary force these three economists who just won the Nobel created. My book on causal inference has a blurb by Guido on the back and I sent one to Angrist with the inscription “thank you for inspiring a generation”

Uncorking the Champagne here!

This is a win for labor economics, modern empirical microeconomics, and three economists who were at the center of a revolution.

Congrats on a well-deserved Nobel Prize for Josh Angrist, a fantastic advisor, scholar, and teacher. Rock on, Josh!
(screenshots courtesy of his sneaky metrics TA in March 2020)