My behind-the-scenes look with James Politi at the months-long campaign by intelligence chiefs, White House officials, European diplomats — and maybe most importantly, Ukrainian evangelicals — to persuade Mike Johnson to hold a vote on Ukraine:

ft.com/content/842cd9… via @ft

How US shale keeps sheltering America from the next oil price surge: 'It has redrawn the map of world oil in a way most people don’t seem to understand'- Daniel Yergin, historian and author of The Prize Myles McCormick Derek Brower ft.com/content/030dc3… via @ft

'fiscal dominance'

First DC byline for Martha Muir 🥳
ft.com/content/f49965…

US to grow at double the rate of G7 peers this year, says IMF

-⁦Sam Fleming (FT)⁩ & ⁦Claire Jones⁩ on.ft.com/49CdY20

Interesting and timely research from Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel) on the incentives behind those Chinese overcapacity claims (tl;dr Secretary Janet Yellen and European Commission may have a point)
ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Date…

Interview w/ John Paulson on Trump, China, trade, Fed & 2020:

on.ft.com/3VSYsv9

Me, on why Biden’s not getting the credit for Georgia’s ‘booming’ economy on.ft.com/43o5Lga

Well done dad! Proud of you ChrisJones 🇪🇺🇬🇧 x

Almost half of US voters said they were now living “comfortably” or able to “meet expenses with a little left over”, according to the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll - a 5 pp jump from Nov - Lauren Fedor ft.com/content/1e5421… via @ft

Trade decoupling from China is certainly happening, but at a much slower pace than many headlines suggest. A big reason is that China is simply routing exports to the US via third countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Great story by ⁦Claire Jones⁩. on.ft.com/49LKBe5

Me on what the Fed said yesterday. TLDR — we’ll cut, but not as soon as March on.ft.com/3UleEVm

Snow falls on the Beatles statue at Pier Head, Liverpool.

Republican rivals in last-ditch bid to cut Trump’s big lead in frozen Iowa

Financial Times latest on the ground with James Politi (+ Claire Jones in DC!)

ft.com/content/1ffccb…

Very grateful to Claire Jones for producing my central banks newsletter today while I am filling in for Martin Wolf

From DC, she's written a lovely piece on how the Fed will approach 2024...
ft.com/content/fc73d9…

Thank you Colby Smith! Delighted to be here in the US, though daunted to have such big shoes to fill

Job growth remains strong, unemployment ticks down, wages are up and all that with a growing labour force - Fed unlikely to shift to rate cuts soon - Claire Jones ft.com/content/35fa30… via @ft

Developing countries secure bigger international tax role for UN ft.com/content/5a7353… via @ft

Great to be at the BoE watchers conference today. We kicked off with a discussion of BoE plans on balance sheet reduction (with Andew Hauser and Claire Jones

- QE created distortions in markets
- QT likely to improve functioning of financial markets.
Money Macro and Finance Society