The ConsrvativeHome verdict of the results — and remember this is THE convening place for the party — has a very clear view of the interpretation of Thursday, and it’s very different from that of CCHQ

conservativehome.com/2024/05/05/goo…

The PM could make a *fortune* if he was confident of this 'heading for a hung parliament'

Current odds (Ladbrokes)
- Labour majority 1/10 (approx 90%)
- No overall majority 7/1 (approx 12%)
- Conservative majority 25/1 (< 4%)

This is wild speculation, but I reckon it might be better politics to fix this than leave the ECHR

The attitude of Welsh and UK Labour to the Vaughan Gething donation scandal is astonishing.

They have both refused to answer any questions put to them about where the left over money will be going.

Let me talk you through this ongoing battle I am having.

[Thread]

Possibly some reflection on the ethics of reporting rumour as fact just so on the off-chance you turn out to be correct you can say you got there first?

There are two possible explanations for this. Either the Telegraph subs are as stupid as she is, or they despise her as much as we do.

Good Q. Greens are now well established in local govt after doing well in every set of local elex since 2019. Could be a major headache for a Labour govt in future local elex and by-elex - perhaps pulling labour leftwards on environment as Ukip pulled Cons rightward on imm & EU

Labour's lead over the Tories is down to just 7%, according to an updated National Equivalent Vote estimate.

Sky Elections Analyst Prof Michael Thrasher says Labour's lead needs to be double that to secure a majority.

#TrevorPhillips 🔗 trib.al/wkmumC6

📺 Sky 501

Reminds me of the time John Major, in similar electoral difficulty, said ‘When your back’s to the wall, you’ve got to turn around and fight.’ Advice that would lead to you fighting a wall.

Penny-wise, pound-foolish. h/t Torsten Bell

Tory plotters streaming back from the pub?!

BREAKING: Labour’s Richard Parker pulls off shock victory in West Midlands, beating Tory incumbent Andy Street by a whisker, sources say.

Huge blow to Rishi Sunak - this was one of two mayoralties Downing Street had hoped would help turn round losing narrative.

Looking forward to it!

Professor Dylan Jones-Evans Senedd Cymru Welsh Government Education Cardiff University Bangor University Cardiff Metropolitan University Aberystwyth University University of Wales Trinity Saint David Wrexham University Swansea University Universities Wales To repeat: University Mergers? I hoped I’d finished that off in 2013. 😉I think it would be a lot of wasted energy for little strategic outcome this time. Big strategic question - how much HE funding does WG wish to send outside Wales? That’s key.

We continue to see a clear structure to the swing from Conservatives to Labour since 2021: this tends to be biggest in areas that voted to Leave the EU in 2016. Analysis for Sky News.

This isn't a 'gap in the polls'. It is a gap in *local* voting patterns which are very different to *general election* voting patterns. Would be utterly crackers to make any GE decisions on this information.

Lot of confusion circulating regarding BBC's projected national share. It is not an estimate of parties' GE prospects. It is not a poll either. It is an attempt to estimate how locals result wld look if everyone in GB voted.

Great guide here from Steve Fisher and…

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I don't want to worry anyone but the Con 2019 - DK's are shrinking and the polls are not narrowing (well only between Con and Reform UK)