Good point, as always 👇🏼

German, British, & Australian Foreign Ministers, among others, called H.Amirabdollahian امیرعبداللهیان to urge Iran not to retaliate against Israel.

European calls are constructive. It recognizes Tehran's power/role & helps repair what has been lost. It can reduce the urgency of military action.

And recognition of Tehran's power/indispensable role!

The constant Israeli fear of retaliation is what Tehran aims for in the short term.

The basic military logic implies that actual retaliation will follow the principle of 'surprise.' Tehran mentioned this fact several times. Timing likely to be different than what US assumes.

Very fruitful discussions on European policy towards Iran and regional security in Lund with an amazing group of experts. Thank you Karin Aggestam and Dalia Dassa Kaye for hosting us.

Toward an Intellectual History of Genocide in Gaza
Destruction begins with ideas
thebaffler.com/latest/toward-…

NEW EPISODE: I speak to Saleha Mohsin, author of 'Paper Soldiers.'

We discuss Bob Rubin's strong dollar policy, Jack Lew's fears about sanctions overuse, and Janet Yellen's response to the invasion of Ukraine.

Moms care about sanctions. You should too!
thesanctionsage.com/p/episode-1-sa…

1. Excited to share that I am starting a podcast about how sanctions are changing the world.

The Sanctions Age invites the people who understand sanctions best—scholars, lawyers, policymakers, and journalists—to explain their use and significance.

Here's a preview...

Nice to chat with anna coren on CNN International this morning about Iran, Israel, the axis of resistance and risk of a broader regional war

Noteworthy and alarming!

The narrative Iran is promoting domestically re retaliation against Israel can be summed up as follows:

1. Israel is on a losing path

2. It's trying to drag us into war to change this trajectory

3. Its attacks on us are signs of desperation

5. We will respond on our own terms

Tehran is deciding about its response to recent Israeli strike. What does Iran's decision-making look like in these situations?

Read my chapter in Mehran Kamrava edited book 'Sacred Republic' to know more on Iran's security decision-making.
hurstpublishers.com/book/the-sacre…

Remarkable!

'...in the midst of a sustained assault on Gaza and the killing of Palestinian civilians at a previously unimaginable scale, Israel is playing with fire.' My latest in Foreign Affairs foreignaffairs.com/israel/israel-…

L’interesse strategico e politico di Netanyahu (e solo di Netanyahu) nell’ escalation regionale. Israele continuerà finché non verrà fermata (da Washington). Stamane su La Stampa

Regional powers like Turkiye, KSA, and trusted countries like Qatar & Oman should take the lead and help stabilise & de-escalate! Iran & Israel r bent on setting the whole region on fire, so we urgently need the grownups to act. Also, Beijing, where r u?!

If Abdolrasool Divsallar is worried, I'm worried.

In January Netanyahu announced Israel would not hesitate to attack Iran. In February, Iran simulated an attack on the #Palmachim airbase by firing its Emad & Qadr ballistic missiles. Israel has fulfilled its threat from #Nevatim by F-35 and now, the ball is in Iran's court. /1

It's now with little doubt that Tehran is planning a response to Israeli attack on its consulate. Khamenei made it clear: 'Response will be by brave Iranian men.'

Israel & Iran are now on the verge of open conflict. US, EU, & other mediators should step in before getting late.

While unclear if #Israel wants all out war, Iran certainly has made it clear it wants no part in any war but it would be a folly to think that those in #Tehran will sit back and turn the other cheek time and again. No matter how calculated and restrained they've been so far.